Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Arizona at Iowa State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat Arizona 39–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa State was a 60% favorite.
Final
 Arizona Wildcats | 14 |
|---|---|
 Iowa State Cyclones | 39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Iowa State about even · −23 Arizona
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona wins 2, Iowa State wins 8.
- 1 ARIZ 31 ISU 14
- 2 ARIZ 27 ISU 24
- 3 ARIZ 31 ISU 34
- 4 ARIZ 31 ISU 37
- 5 ARIZ 35 ISU 45
- 6 ARIZ 14 ISU 26
- 7 ARIZ 13 ISU 27
- 8 ARIZ 10 ISU 29
- 9 ARIZ 17 ISU 42
- 10 ARIZ 14 ISU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona wins 23% of them, Iowa State 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona by 17+ | 4.1% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 10.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Iowa State by 17+ | 35.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Salgado-Medina, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- C. Smith, 34 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Arizona 1 for 15 yards, Iowa State 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:55 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards | +2% ISU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:20 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARIZ +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Iowa State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:04 | Arizona converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% ARIZ | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:22 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% ISU | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:15 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:12 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:56 | Iowa State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% ISU | ISU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:10 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% ISU | ISU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 1:35 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +3% ARIZ | ISU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 9:47 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% ISU | ISU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona 0% · Iowa State 100%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 25
- Luck in points
- 8.7 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 16.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona 23% · Iowa State 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Arizona · 
Iowa State
More from Week 5 2025
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado BYU 24–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- UCF at Kansas State KSU 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- TCU at Arizona State ASU 27–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Utah at West Virginia UTAH 48–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner