luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Baylor at Arizona, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona beat Baylor 41–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 10 of 10. Baylor had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Baylor.

Before kickoff Arizona was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:26 left): Baylor converted 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to Baylor.

Final

Baylor Bears 17
Arizona Wildcats 41

November 22, 2025 · Arizona Stadium · Closing line: Arizona −6.5

Luck index +4 Arizona about even · −4 Baylor

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Baylor wins 0, Arizona wins 10.

  1. 1 BAY 21 ARIZ 24
  2. 2 BAY 17 ARIZ 26
  3. 3 BAY 7 ARIZ 20
  4. 4 BAY 10 ARIZ 26
  5. 5 BAY 10 ARIZ 30
  6. 6 BAY 21 ARIZ 44
  7. 7 BAY 7 ARIZ 33
  8. 8 BAY 7 ARIZ 37
  9. 9 BAY 3 ARIZ 38
  10. 10 BAY 7 ARIZ 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Baylor wins 4% of them, Arizona 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Baylor by 17+0.1%
Baylor by 9–160.5%
Baylor by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Arizona by 1–88.6%
Arizona by 9–1617.8%
Arizona by 17+69.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Baylor: the final margin was Arizona by 24, without the luck Arizona by 28.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Hawkins, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
  • C. Hawkins, 48 yds made · 58% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 38 yds missed · 75% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Baylor 6 for 64 yards, Arizona 9 for 104 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:14 Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards +6% BAY +3.1 pts
Q1 7:55 Pass Interference on Baylor, 13 yards +6% ARIZ +3.1 pts
Q1 2:44 Offside on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAY +1.1 pts
Q1 0:49 Pass Interference on Arizona, 4 yards +2% BAY +0.8 pts
Q2 8:59 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona, 15 yards +2% BAY +0.9 pts
Q2 2:46 Pass Interference on Baylor, 5 yards +2% ARIZ +0.7 pts
Q2 0:14 Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yards +1% ARIZ +1.3 pts
Q3 11:49 Pass Interference on Baylor, 11 yards +4% ARIZ +1.6 pts
Q3 11:49 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona, 15 yards 0% BAY +0.9 pts
Q3 5:23 Kick Catch Interference on Arizona, 15 yards +3% BAY +0.9 pts
Q3 3:03 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards +6% ARIZ +1.7 pts
Q4 12:19 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards +1% ARIZ +0.6 pts
Q4 8:24 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards 0% BAY +1.1 pts
Q4 6:27 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona, 15 yards 0% BAY +0.9 pts
Q4 3:54 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% BAY +6.4 pts

When it happened

Arizona’s chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arizona was ahead in it, below while Baylor was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAY BAY: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:55 Pass Interference on Baylor, 13 yardsJudgment calls +6% ARIZ ARIZ: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:57 Baylor converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% BAY BAY: Missed field goal
4 Q3 13:15 Arizona converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% ARIZ ARIZ: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:16 Baylor converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% BAY BAY: Turnover
6 Q3 3:03 Holding on Baylor, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% ARIZ ARIZ: Missed field goal
7 Q3 1:26 Baylor converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% BAY BAY: Turnover
8 Q4 10:37 Baylor fumbled and Arizona recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ARIZ BAY: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Baylor 0% · Arizona 100%

Final margin
Arizona by 24
Luck in points
4.7 for Baylor
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona by 28.7
Replay with same day's form
Baylor 4% · Arizona 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Baylor · Arizona

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