Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
TCU at Houston, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
TCU beat Houston 17–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff TCU was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): E. Sanchez missed a 38-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to TCU.
Final
 TCU Horned Frogs | 17 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 TCU lucky · −25 Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. TCU wins 7, Houston wins 3.
- 1 TCU 42 HOU 7
- 2 TCU 41 HOU 14
- 3 TCU 48 HOU 27
- 4 TCU 37 HOU 21
- 5 TCU 34 HOU 21
- 6 TCU 37 HOU 28
- 7 TCU 28 HOU 24
- 8 TCU 24 HOU 27
- 9 TCU 17 HOU 24
- 10 TCU 14 HOU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
TCU wins 75% of them, Houston 25%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| TCU by 17+ | 35.3% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 18.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 11.8% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| Houston by 17+ | 5.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. McCashland, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- E. Sanchez, 49 yds missed · 59% expected
- E. Sanchez, 38 yds missed · 78% expected
Penalties: TCU 7 for 70 yards, Houston 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:16 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:45 | Offside on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | Delay of Game on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% HOU +2.8 pts |
| Q2 9:13 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +4% HOU +2.7 pts |
| Q2 3:12 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | 0% HOU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +3% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +10% TCU +3.8 pts |
| Q3 12:59 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +4% TCU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | Personal Foul on TCU, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% HOU +3.4 pts |
| Q3 3:29 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +5% TCU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 4:48 | Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% HOU | HOU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 14:55 | Holding on Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +10% TCU | TCU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 9:20 | Personal Foul on TCU, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 0:28 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +7% HOU | TCU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:21 | E. Sanchez missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before | +13% TCU | HOU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:53 | TCU was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +14% HOU | TCU: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 1:38 | Houston converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:46 | E. Sanchez missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +21% TCU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
TCU 41% · Houston 59%
- Final margin
- TCU by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for TCU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- TCU 75% · Houston 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
TCU · 
Houston
More from Week 13 2025
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kansas at Iowa State ISU 38–14 · replay 49% for the winner
- Kansas State at Utah UTAH 51–47 · replay 52% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at UCF UCF 17–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Baylor at Arizona ARIZ 41–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Arizona State at Colorado ASU 42–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner