luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Oklahoma State at UCF, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

UCF beat Oklahoma State 17–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCF wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff UCF was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:52 left): UCF fumbled and recovered it, worth 12 points of win probability to UCF.

Final

Oklahoma State Cowboys 14
UCF Knights 17

November 22, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: UCF −13.5

Luck index +8 UCF about even · −8 Oklahoma State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 1, UCF wins 9.

  1. 1 OKST 13 UCF 7
  2. 2 OKST 10 UCF 13
  3. 3 OKST 21 UCF 28
  4. 4 OKST 6 UCF 17
  5. 5 OKST 0 UCF 14
  6. 6 OKST 13 UCF 31
  7. 7 OKST 7 UCF 28
  8. 8 OKST 7 UCF 31
  9. 9 OKST 7 UCF 38
  10. 10 OKST 17 UCF 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oklahoma State wins 8% of them, UCF 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oklahoma State by 17+0.4%
Oklahoma State by 9–161.5%
Oklahoma State by 1–84.9%
Level after regulation1.0%
UCF by 1–813.0%
UCF by 9–1618.1%
UCF by 17+61.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to UCF: the final margin was UCF by 3, without the luck Oklahoma State by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Oklahoma State 2 for 20 yards, UCF 10 for 72 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:00 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% OKST +0.8 pts
Q2 9:15 Holding on UCF, 7 yards +2% OKST +0.8 pts
Q2 0:50 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.2 pts
Q2 0:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% UCF +1.6 pts
Q3 10:05 Illegal Formation on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OKST +0.3 pts
Q3 2:36 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +1.0 pts
Q3 0:50 Holding on UCF, 10 yards +8% OKST +1.8 pts
Q4 14:02 False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +0.7 pts
Q4 12:19 Holding on UCF, 10 yards +11% OKST +2.4 pts
Q4 3:52 Ineligible Downfield on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% OKST +1.6 pts
Q4 2:33 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% OKST +0.5 pts
Q4 0:46 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCF, 15 yards +5% OKST +0.9 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while Oklahoma State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:14 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% UCF OKST: Punt
2 Q3 2:06 UCF converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% UCF UCF: Punt
3 Q3 0:50 Holding on UCF, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% OKST OKST: Punt
4 Q4 12:19 Holding on UCF, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% OKST OKST: Punt
5 Q4 9:47 UCF was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +9% OKST UCF: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:12 UCF converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +11% UCF UCF: Field goal
7 Q4 3:52 Ineligible Downfield on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% OKST OKST: Turnover
8 Q4 2:52 UCF fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% UCF UCF: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oklahoma State 53% · UCF 47%

Final margin
UCF by 3
Luck in points
3.7 for UCF
Luck-adjusted margin
Oklahoma State by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Oklahoma State 8% · UCF 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Oklahoma State · UCF

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