luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Arizona State at Colorado, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona State beat Colorado 42–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Arizona State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:19 left): Colorado converted 3rd & 23, worth 13 points of win probability to Colorado.

Final

Arizona State Sun Devils 42
Colorado Buffaloes 17

November 22, 2025 · Folsom Field · Closing line: Arizona State −7

Luck index +2 Arizona State about even · −2 Colorado

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arizona State wins 10, Colorado wins 0.

  1. 1 ASU 57 COLO 0
  2. 2 ASU 52 COLO 7
  3. 3 ASU 52 COLO 13
  4. 4 ASU 55 COLO 21
  5. 5 ASU 43 COLO 14
  6. 6 ASU 45 COLO 20
  7. 7 ASU 38 COLO 17
  8. 8 ASU 30 COLO 13
  9. 9 ASU 15 COLO 3
  10. 10 ASU 23 COLO 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arizona State wins 98% of them, Colorado 2%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arizona State by 17+82.3%
Arizona State by 9–168.8%
Arizona State by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.3%
Colorado by 1–81.8%
Colorado by 9–160.5%
Colorado by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to Arizona State: the final margin was Arizona State by 25, without the luck Arizona State by 22.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Gomez, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Gomez, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • A. Mata, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arizona State 7 for 55 yards, Colorado 7 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:24 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% COLO +0.7 pts
Q1 7:49 Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado, 15 yards +3% ASU +1.6 pts
Q1 6:39 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% COLO +1.2 pts
Q1 2:13 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% COLO +0.8 pts
Q2 5:15 Ineligible Downfield on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% COLO +1.5 pts
Q2 3:18 Illegal Snap on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ASU +0.4 pts
Q2 2:24 Roughing the Passer on Arizona State, 15 yards +4% COLO +1.6 pts
Q3 5:29 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ASU +0.4 pts
Q3 5:25 Helping the Runner on Arizona State, 5 yards +1% COLO +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ASU +0.4 pts
Q4 13:15 Personal Foul on Arizona State, 15 yards +4% COLO +3.0 pts
Q4 11:41 Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yards +1% ASU +1.6 pts
Q4 5:36 Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yards 0% ASU +0.1 pts
Q4 1:52 Personal Foul on Colorado, 3 yards 0% ASU +1.6 pts

When it happened

Colorado’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 51%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado was ahead in it, below while Arizona State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:43 Arizona State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% ASU ASU: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 12:20 Arizona State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% ASU ASU: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 10:23 Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% COLO ASU: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:19 Arizona State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% ASU ASU: Turnover
5 Q3 10:35 Arizona State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedArizona State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% ASU ASU: Turnover
6 Q3 7:40 Arizona State fumbled and Colorado recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% COLO ASU: Punt
7 Q4 14:19 Colorado converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 11% expected +13% COLO COLO: Turnover
8 Q4 13:44 Colorado fumbled and Arizona State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ASU COLO: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arizona State 100% · Colorado 0%

Final margin
Arizona State by 25
Luck in points
2.8 for Arizona State
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona State by 22.2
Replay with same day's form
Arizona State 98% · Colorado 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Arizona State · Colorado

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