Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
South Dakota at Iowa State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat South Dakota 55–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa State was an 81% favorite.
Final
 South Dakota Coyotes | 7 |
|---|---|
 Iowa State Cyclones | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Iowa State about even · 0 South Dakota
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Dakota wins 0, Iowa State wins 10.
- 1 SDAK 21 ISU 31
- 2 SDAK 10 ISU 28
- 3 SDAK 7 ISU 30
- 4 SDAK 14 ISU 41
- 5 SDAK 0 ISU 30
- 6 SDAK 16 ISU 49
- 7 SDAK 21 ISU 56
- 8 SDAK 10 ISU 49
- 9 SDAK 7 ISU 52
- 10 SDAK 0 ISU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Dakota wins 0% of them, Iowa State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 48.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Dakota by 17+ | 0.0% |
| South Dakota by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| South Dakota by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Iowa State by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- K. Konrardy, 63 yds made · 35% expected
Penalties: South Dakota 5 for 45 yards, Iowa State 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:29 | False Start on South Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 0:31 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | 0% SDAK 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:39 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards | 0% SDAK +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:04 | Holding on South Dakota, 10 yards | 0% ISU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:59 | Illegal Touching on South Dakota, 9 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ISU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:19 | Pass Interference on South Dakota, 15 yards | 0% ISU +2.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDAK +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:07 | Face Mask on South Dakota, 6 yards | 0% ISU +3.0 pts |
When it happened
Iowa State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:10 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +2% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:29 | False Start on South Dakota, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:57 | South Dakota converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% SDAK | SDAK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:03 | South Dakota converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% SDAK | SDAK: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:33 | South Dakota converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +4% SDAK | SDAK: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 4:53 | Iowa State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +1% ISU | ISU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:27 | South Dakota was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% ISU | SDAK: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:00 | K. Konrardy made a 63-yard field goalKicks · 35% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before | +1% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Dakota 0% · Iowa State 100%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 48
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 40.0
- Replay with same day's form
- South Dakota 0% · Iowa State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
South Dakota · 
Iowa State
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner
- TCU at North Carolina TCU 48–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Stephen F. Austin at Houston HOU 27–0 · replay 100% for the winner