College football · Week 8 2026 · Saturday, October 24
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State prediction and pick
Our Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs pick: Mississippi State by 4.9, 62% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Oct 24, time to be announced · Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi State by 4.9 · 62% to win
Ours: Mississippi State by 4.9Oklahoma win 38%Mississippi State win 62%5649423528211470714212835424956← Oklahoma win byMississippi State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Oklahoma win
38.3%
Mississippi State win
61.7%
Middle 50%: Oklahoma by 7 to Mississippi State by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Oklahoma by 22 to Mississippi State by 32
90%
Middle 95%: Oklahoma by 28 to Mississippi State by 38
95%
Exactly Mississippi State by 3
6.7%
Exactly Oklahoma by 3
6.0%
Exactly Mississippi State by 7
5.4%
Exactly Oklahoma by 7
4.2%
Exactly Mississippi State by 14
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Oklahoma by 7 and Mississippi State by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Oklahoma by 22 and Mississippi State by 32.
P95
19 in 20 between Oklahoma by 28 and Mississippi State by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State: questions and answers
Who will win Oklahoma vs Mississippi State?
Our forecast picks Mississippi State, with 62% to win; Oklahoma win 38% of the time.
What’s the spread for Oklahoma vs Mississippi State?
Our spread: Mississippi State −4.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Oklahoma vs Mississippi State?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Davis Wade Stadium.
Oklahoma at 
Mississippi State
