Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Illinois State at Oklahoma, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Illinois State 35–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Illinois State Redbirds | 3 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma Sooners | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oklahoma about even · 0 Illinois State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Illinois State wins 0, Oklahoma wins 10.
- 1 ILST 10 OU 21
- 2 ILST 7 OU 24
- 3 ILST 6 OU 28
- 4 ILST 0 OU 27
- 5 ILST 3 OU 31
- 6 ILST 0 OU 31
- 7 ILST 0 OU 34
- 8 ILST 0 OU 38
- 9 ILST 0 OU 42
- 10 ILST 0 OU 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Illinois State wins 0% of them, Oklahoma 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Illinois State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Illinois State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Illinois State by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 94.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Illinois State 2 for 10 yards, Oklahoma 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:12 | Delay of Game on Illinois State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:00 | False Start on Illinois State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:43 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILST +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Oklahoma, 3 yards | 0% OU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 8:18 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:04 | Holding on Oklahoma, 7 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ILST +1.9 pts |
| Q4 13:17 | Illegal Formation on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILST +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% ILST | OU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:12 | Illinois State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedIllinois State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedDelay of Game on Illinois State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ILST | ILST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:00 | Illinois State was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedOklahoma fumbled and Illinois State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on Illinois State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ILST | ILST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:43 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedFalse Start on Oklahoma, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ILST | OU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Holding on Oklahoma, 3 yardsJudgment calls | +0% OU | ILST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:49 | Illinois State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% ILST | ILST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:18 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedOklahoma converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedOklahoma converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedFalse Start on Oklahoma, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 12:04 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedHolding on Oklahoma, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% ILST | OU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Illinois State 0% · Oklahoma 100%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 32
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Illinois State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 32.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Illinois State 0% · Oklahoma 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Illinois State · 
Oklahoma
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Southern Miss MSST 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Missouri MIZ 61–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Marshall at Georgia UGA 45–7 · replay 100% for the winner