College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech prediction and pick
Our Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs pick: Louisiana Tech by 5.9, 64% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 21, time to be announced · Joe Aillet Stadium
Louisiana Tech by 5.9 · 64% to win
Ours: Louisiana Tech by 5.9Arkansas State win 36%Louisiana Tech win 64%5649423528211470714212835424956← Arkansas State win byLouisiana Tech win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Arkansas State win
36.3%
Louisiana Tech win
63.7%
Middle 50%: Arkansas State by 6 to Louisiana Tech by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Arkansas State by 22 to Louisiana Tech by 34
90%
Middle 95%: Arkansas State by 28 to Louisiana Tech by 39
95%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 3
6.4%
Exactly Arkansas State by 3
5.7%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 7
5.3%
Exactly Arkansas State by 7
4.0%
Exactly Louisiana Tech by 14
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Arkansas State by 6 and Louisiana Tech by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Arkansas State by 22 and Louisiana Tech by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between Arkansas State by 28 and Louisiana Tech by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech: questions and answers
Who will win Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech?
Our forecast picks Louisiana Tech, with 64% to win; Arkansas State win 36% of the time.
What’s the spread for Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech?
Our spread: Louisiana Tech −5.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech?
Saturday, November 21, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Joe Aillet Stadium.
Arkansas State at 
Louisiana Tech
