luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 35 of the 39 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Fresno State at USC, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

USC beat Fresno State 39–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff USC was a 92% favorite.

Final

Fresno State Bulldogs 0
USC Trojans 39

September 4, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: USC −21.5

Luck index +1 USC about even · −1 Fresno State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Fresno State wins 0, USC wins 10.

  1. 1 FRES 13 USC 19
  2. 2 FRES 10 USC 21
  3. 3 FRES 0 USC 16
  4. 4 FRES 0 USC 19
  5. 5 FRES 0 USC 21
  6. 6 FRES 6 USC 31
  7. 7 FRES 0 USC 28
  8. 8 FRES 3 USC 35
  9. 9 FRES 13 USC 48
  10. 10 FRES 3 USC 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Fresno State wins 1% of them, USC 99%. The line is what actually happened: USC by 39.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Fresno State by 17+0.0%
Fresno State by 9–160.2%
Fresno State by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.2%
USC by 1–84.2%
USC by 9–168.2%
USC by 17+86.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to USC: the final margin was USC by 39, without the luck USC by 33.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Fresno State 3 for 20 yards, USC 5 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:23 Illegal Shift on USC, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% FRES +1.1 pts
Q2 14:39 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USC +1.9 pts
Q2 7:23 Intentional Grounding on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% USC +0.6 pts
Q2 4:02 Roughing the Passer on USC, 15 yards 0% FRES +0.9 pts
Q3 13:20 Illegal Block on USC, 9 yards 0% FRES +0.6 pts
Q3 9:21 Offside on Fresno State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% USC +3.3 pts
Q3 0:02 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +0.2 pts
Q4 13:41 Holding on USC, 10 yards 0% FRES +3.6 pts

When it happened

USC’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while USC was ahead in it, below while Fresno State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:58 USC converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +1% USC USC: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:12 USC was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +1% FRES USC: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:56 USC converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% USC USC: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:27 USC converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% USC USC: Turnover
5 Q1 8:34 Fresno State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +1% FRES FRES: Turnover
6 Q1 2:32 USC fumbled and Fresno State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% FRES USC: Touchdown
7 Q1 1:39 Fresno State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +1% FRES FRES: Punt
8 Q2 14:39 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% USC USC: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Fresno State 0% · USC 100%

Final margin
USC by 39
Luck in points
5.7 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
USC by 33.3
Replay with same day's form
Fresno State 1% · USC 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 35 of the 39 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Fresno State · USC

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