Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Northern Arizona at Arizona, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Northern Arizona 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 7 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Arizona about even · 0 Northern Arizona
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Arizona wins 0, Arizona wins 10.
- 1 NAU 3 ARIZ 33
- 2 NAU 6 ARIZ 44
- 3 NAU 0 ARIZ 42
- 4 NAU 3 ARIZ 49
- 5 NAU 13 ARIZ 61
- 6 NAU 0 ARIZ 52
- 7 NAU 3 ARIZ 58
- 8 NAU 7 ARIZ 65
- 9 NAU 0 ARIZ 63
- 10 NAU 0 ARIZ 69
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Arizona wins 0% of them, Arizona 100%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Arizona by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Northern Arizona by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Northern Arizona by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Arizona by 17+ | 97.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Northern Arizona 5 for 32 yards, Arizona 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:24 | Illegal Motion on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:47 | Delay of Game on Northern Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ 0.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Northern Arizona, 10 yards | 0% ARIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:47 | Delay of Game on Northern Arizona, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:36 | False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 13:42 | Delay of Game on Northern Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:55 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% NAU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:43 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NAU +2.7 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Holding on Northern Arizona, 10 yards | 0% ARIZ +2.7 pts |
When it happened
Arizona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:05 | Arizona converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:18 | Arizona converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:48 | Northern Arizona converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% NAU | NAU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:51 | Northern Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% ARIZ | NAU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:30 | Arizona fumbled and Northern Arizona recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% NAU | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 0:12 | Northern Arizona converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% NAU | NAU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 13:26 | Northern Arizona was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% ARIZ | NAU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 13:24 | Illegal Motion on Arizona, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% NAU | NAU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Arizona 0% · Arizona 100%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 28
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 23.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Arizona 0% · Arizona 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Northern Arizona · 
Arizona
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State ISU 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at Texas Tech TTU 33–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bethune-Cookman at UCF UCF 73–6 · replay 100% for the winner