College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28
Massachusetts vs Bowling Green prediction and pick
Our Massachusetts Minutemen at Bowling Green Falcons pick: Massachusetts by 5.1, 62% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Massachusetts by 5.1Massachusetts win 62%Bowling Green win 38%5649423528211470714212835424956← Massachusetts win byBowling Green win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Massachusetts win
61.8%
Bowling Green win
38.2%
Middle 50%: Massachusetts by 17 to Bowling Green by 7
50%
Middle 90%: Massachusetts by 33 to Bowling Green by 23
90%
Middle 95%: Massachusetts by 38 to Bowling Green by 28
95%
Exactly Massachusetts by 3
6.5%
Exactly Bowling Green by 3
5.8%
Exactly Massachusetts by 7
5.2%
Exactly Bowling Green by 7
4.1%
Exactly Massachusetts by 14
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Massachusetts by 17 and Bowling Green by 7.
P90
9 in 10 between Massachusetts by 33 and Bowling Green by 23.
P95
19 in 20 between Massachusetts by 38 and Bowling Green by 28.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Massachusetts vs Bowling Green: questions and answers
Who will win Massachusetts vs Bowling Green?
Our forecast picks Massachusetts, with 62% to win; Bowling Green win 38% of the time.
What’s the spread for Massachusetts vs Bowling Green?
Our spread: Massachusetts −5.1. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Massachusetts vs Bowling Green?
Saturday, November 28, 2026, at 12:00 pm ET, at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Massachusetts at 
Bowling Green
