College football · Week 9 2026 · Saturday, October 31
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan prediction and pick
Our Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos pick: Western Michigan by 20.9, 90% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Western Michigan by 20.9Bowling Green win 10%Western Michigan win 90%5649423528211470714212835424956← Bowling Green win byWestern Michigan win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Bowling Green win
10.4%
Western Michigan win
89.6%
Middle 50%: Western Michigan by 10 to Western Michigan by 32
50%
Middle 90%: Bowling Green by 7 to Western Michigan by 49
90%
Middle 95%: Bowling Green by 12 to Western Michigan by 53
95%
Exactly Western Michigan by 21
4.3%
Exactly Western Michigan by 28
4.1%
Exactly Western Michigan by 17
4.0%
Exactly Western Michigan by 14
3.9%
Exactly Western Michigan by 7
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Western Michigan by 10 and Western Michigan by 32.
P90
9 in 10 between Bowling Green by 7 and Western Michigan by 49.
P95
19 in 20 between Bowling Green by 12 and Western Michigan by 53.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan: questions and answers
Who will win Bowling Green vs Western Michigan?
Our forecast picks Western Michigan, with 90% to win; Bowling Green win 10% of the time.
What’s the spread for Bowling Green vs Western Michigan?
Our spread: Western Michigan −20.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Bowling Green vs Western Michigan?
Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 12:00 pm ET, at Waldo Stadium.
Bowling Green at 
Western Michigan
