luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Bowling Green at Nebraska, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Nebraska beat Bowling Green 56–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Nebraska was a 98% favorite.

Final

Bowling Green Falcons 7
Nebraska Cornhuskers 56

September 12, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Closing line: Nebraska −30.5

Luck index 0 Nebraska about even · 0 Bowling Green

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 0, Nebraska wins 10.

  1. 1 BGSU 10 NEB 37
  2. 2 BGSU 3 NEB 37
  3. 3 BGSU 7 NEB 45
  4. 4 BGSU 7 NEB 49
  5. 5 BGSU 10 NEB 56
  6. 6 BGSU 3 NEB 52
  7. 7 BGSU 7 NEB 59
  8. 8 BGSU 3 NEB 59
  9. 9 BGSU 7 NEB 66
  10. 10 BGSU 0 NEB 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bowling Green wins 0% of them, Nebraska 100%. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bowling Green by 17+0.0%
Bowling Green by 9–160.0%
Bowling Green by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Nebraska by 1–80.7%
Nebraska by 9–161.9%
Nebraska by 17+97.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to Nebraska: the final margin was Nebraska by 49, without the luck Nebraska by 45.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bowling Green 7 for 49 yards, Nebraska 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:13 Ineligible Downfield on Bowling Green, 5 yards 0% NEB +1.6 pts
Q1 11:53 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards 0% NEB +0.6 pts
Q1 4:30 Ineligible Downfield on Nebraska, 5 yards 0% BGSU +0.7 pts
Q2 8:55 Offside on Bowling Green, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% BGSU 0.0 pts
Q2 6:28 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q2 4:14 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q2 2:50 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards 0% NEB +0.7 pts
Q2 0:50 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q3 7:50 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards 0% NEB +2.5 pts
Q3 6:40 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% BGSU +0.6 pts
Q3 5:16 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% BGSU +1.4 pts
Q3 3:25 Ineligible Downfield on Bowling Green, 5 yards 0% NEB +1.1 pts
Q4 7:08 Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEB +0.5 pts
Q4 5:27 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% BGSU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Nebraska’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Nebraska was ahead in it, below while Bowling Green was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:13 Ineligible Downfield on Bowling Green, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:53 Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:54 Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% BGSU NEB: Touchdown
4 Q1 10:21 Nebraska converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:49 Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +0% BGSU NEB: Touchdown
6 Q1 8:12 Nebraska converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
7 Q1 0:32 Nebraska converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
8 Q2 14:11 Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +0% NEB BGSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bowling Green 0% · Nebraska 100%

Final margin
Nebraska by 49
Luck in points
3.2 for Nebraska
Luck-adjusted margin
Nebraska by 45.8
Replay with same day's form
Bowling Green 0% · Nebraska 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Bowling Green · Nebraska

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