College football · Week 6 2026 · Saturday, October 10
Sacramento State vs Bowling Green prediction and pick
Our Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons pick: Bowling Green by 7.7, 68% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 2 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.2, so about 55% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Bowling Green by 7.7Sacramento State win 32%Bowling Green win 68%5649423528211470714212835424956← Sacramento State win byBowling Green win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Sacramento State win
31.7%
Bowling Green win
68.3%
Middle 50%: Sacramento State by 3 to Bowling Green by 18
50%
Middle 90%: Sacramento State by 19 to Bowling Green by 34
90%
Middle 95%: Sacramento State by 24 to Bowling Green by 39
95%
Exactly Bowling Green by 3
6.6%
Exactly Sacramento State by 3
5.6%
Exactly Bowling Green by 7
5.5%
Exactly Bowling Green by 14
4.0%
Exactly Sacramento State by 7
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Sacramento State by 3 and Bowling Green by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between Sacramento State by 19 and Bowling Green by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between Sacramento State by 24 and Bowling Green by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Sacramento State vs Bowling Green: questions and answers
Who will win Sacramento State vs Bowling Green?
Our forecast picks Bowling Green, with 68% to win; Sacramento State win 32% of the time.
What’s the spread for Sacramento State vs Bowling Green?
Our spread: Bowling Green −7.7. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Sacramento State vs Bowling Green?
Saturday, October 10, 2026, at 12:00 pm ET, at Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Sacramento State at 
Bowling Green
