Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Morgan State at Toledo, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Morgan State 60–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Morgan State Bears | 0 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Toledo about even · 0 Morgan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Morgan State wins 0, Toledo wins 10.
- 1 MORG 3 TOL 27
- 2 MORG 0 TOL 35
- 3 MORG 3 TOL 44
- 4 MORG 0 TOL 44
- 5 MORG 3 TOL 51
- 6 MORG 10 TOL 62
- 7 MORG 3 TOL 58
- 8 MORG 3 TOL 62
- 9 MORG 0 TOL 63
- 10 MORG 0 TOL 69
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Morgan State wins 0% of them, Toledo 100%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 60.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Morgan State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Morgan State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Morgan State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 95.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Morgan State 5 for 19 yards, Toledo 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:03 | False Start on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% MORG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Morgan State, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:04 | Offside on Morgan State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL 0.0 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | Pass Interference on Morgan State, 4 yards | 0% TOL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:21 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% MORG +2.2 pts |
| Q3 3:55 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% MORG 0.0 pts |
| Q4 8:56 | Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MORG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:21 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MORG +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:16 | Pass Interference on Morgan State, 7 yards | 0% TOL +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:41 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% MORG | TOL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:37 | Morgan State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% TOL | MORG: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:37 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MORG | MORG: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:21 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% TOL | TOL: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:23 | Morgan State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% TOL | MORG: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:28 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% MORG | TOL: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 14:08 | Toledo’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 13:12 | Morgan State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% MORG | MORG: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Morgan State 0% · Toledo 100%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 60
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 57.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Morgan State 0% · Toledo 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Morgan State · 
Toledo
More from Week 3 2025
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Michigan MICH 63–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Ohio at Ohio State OSU 37–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner