Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Wagner at Central Michigan, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Central Michigan beat Wagner 49–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Central Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Central Michigan was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Wagner Seahawks | 10 |
|---|---|
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Central Michigan about even · 0 Wagner
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wagner wins 0, Central Michigan wins 10.
- 1 WAG 3 CMU 17
- 2 WAG 3 CMU 24
- 3 WAG 10 CMU 35
- 4 WAG 6 CMU 34
- 5 WAG 0 CMU 31
- 6 WAG 7 CMU 42
- 7 WAG 0 CMU 38
- 8 WAG 0 CMU 42
- 9 WAG 0 CMU 45
- 10 WAG 0 CMU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wagner wins 0% of them, Central Michigan 100%. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wagner by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Wagner by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Wagner by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 97.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Wagner 3 for 25 yards, Central Michigan 7 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:31 | Offside on Wagner, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAG +1.8 pts |
| Q1 6:34 | Running Into the Kicker on Central Michigan, 5 yards | 0% WAG +3.1 pts |
| Q1 5:56 | Face Mask on Central Michigan, 15 yards | 0% WAG +2.9 pts |
| Q1 5:09 | Illegal Use of Hands on Wagner, 10 yards | 0% CMU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 4:04 | Illegal Use of Hands on Central Michigan, 5 yards | 0% WAG +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:59 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yards | 0% WAG +2.5 pts |
| Q3 6:24 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAG +0.3 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Central Michigan, 15 yards | 0% WAG +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | Pass Interference on Wagner, 12 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CMU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 14:23 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAG +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Central Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:20 | Return touchdown by Central MichiganSpecial teams | +1% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:44 | Wagner converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% WAG | WAG: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 11:49 | Wagner fumbled and Central Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% CMU | WAG: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:31 | Offside on Wagner, 3 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% WAG | CMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 5:56 | Face Mask on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% WAG | WAG: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 12:59 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% WAG | WAG: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 10:11 | Wagner converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% WAG | WAG: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 2:48 | Pass Interference on Wagner, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% CMU | CMU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wagner 0% · Central Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Central Michigan by 39
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Central Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Central Michigan by 35.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Wagner 0% · Central Michigan 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Wagner · 
Central Michigan
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Toledo at Western Michigan WMU 14–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Louisville LOU 40–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Duquesne at Akron AKR 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Florida State FSU 66–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner