College football · Week 5 2026 · Saturday, October 3
Fresno State vs Washington State prediction and pick
Our Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars pick: Washington State by 0.9, 52% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.0, so about 57% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Washington State by 0.9Fresno State win 48%Washington State win 52%494235282114707142128354249← Fresno State win byWashington State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Fresno State win
47.8%
Washington State win
52.2%
Middle 50%: Fresno State by 10 to Washington State by 12
50%
Middle 90%: Fresno State by 25 to Washington State by 28
90%
Middle 95%: Fresno State by 31 to Washington State by 32
95%
Exactly Washington State by 3
6.9%
Exactly Fresno State by 3
6.8%
Exactly Washington State by 7
5.2%
Exactly Fresno State by 7
5.0%
Exactly Washington State by 14
3.2%
P50
Half of games like this end between Fresno State by 10 and Washington State by 12.
P90
9 in 10 between Fresno State by 25 and Washington State by 28.
P95
19 in 20 between Fresno State by 31 and Washington State by 32.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Fresno State vs Washington State: questions and answers
Who will win Fresno State vs Washington State?
Our forecast picks Washington State, with 52% to win; Fresno State win 48% of the time.
What’s the spread for Fresno State vs Washington State?
Our spread: Washington State −0.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Fresno State vs Washington State?
Saturday, October 3, 2026, at 9:30 pm ET, at Gesa Field.
Fresno State at 
Washington State
