College football · Week 5 2026 · Thursday, October 1
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State prediction and pick
Our Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies pick: New Mexico State by 0.6, 52% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.0, so about 57% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: New Mexico State by 0.6Western Kentucky win 48%New Mexico State win 52%494235282114707142128354249← Western Kentucky win byNew Mexico State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Western Kentucky win
48.4%
New Mexico State win
51.6%
Middle 50%: Western Kentucky by 10 to New Mexico State by 11
50%
Middle 90%: Western Kentucky by 26 to New Mexico State by 27
90%
Middle 95%: Western Kentucky by 31 to New Mexico State by 32
95%
Exactly New Mexico State by 3
6.9%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 3
6.8%
Exactly New Mexico State by 7
5.2%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 7
5.0%
Exactly New Mexico State by 14
3.1%
P50
Half of games like this end between Western Kentucky by 10 and New Mexico State by 11.
P90
9 in 10 between Western Kentucky by 26 and New Mexico State by 27.
P95
19 in 20 between Western Kentucky by 31 and New Mexico State by 32.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State: questions and answers
Who will win Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State?
Our forecast picks New Mexico State, with 52% to win; Western Kentucky win 48% of the time.
What’s the spread for Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State?
Our spread: New Mexico State −0.6. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State?
Thursday, October 1, 2026, at 8:00 pm ET, at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Western Kentucky at 
New Mexico State
