luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Southern at Fresno State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Fresno State beat Southern 56–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Fresno State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Fresno State was a 99% favorite.

Final

Southern Jaguars 7
Fresno State Bulldogs 56

September 13, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium · Closing line: Fresno State −37.5

Luck index 0 Fresno State about even · 0 Southern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Southern wins 0, Fresno State wins 10.

  1. 1 SOU 10 FRES 31
  2. 2 SOU 3 FRES 31
  3. 3 SOU 3 FRES 37
  4. 4 SOU 0 FRES 37
  5. 5 SOU 0 FRES 40
  6. 6 SOU 3 FRES 45
  7. 7 SOU 7 FRES 52
  8. 8 SOU 0 FRES 49
  9. 9 SOU 6 FRES 59
  10. 10 SOU 0 FRES 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Southern wins 0% of them, Fresno State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Southern by 17+0.0%
Southern by 9–160.0%
Southern by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Fresno State by 1–80.2%
Fresno State by 9–161.4%
Fresno State by 17+98.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.2 points to Fresno State: the final margin was Fresno State by 49, without the luck Fresno State by 38.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Southern 9 for 66 yards, Fresno State 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:53 False Start on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +0.8 pts
Q1 11:06 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yards 0% SOU +3.2 pts
Q1 10:11 False Start on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +0.8 pts
Q1 8:05 Holding on Southern, 10 yards 0% FRES +0.3 pts
Q1 1:15 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% SOU +1.8 pts
Q1 1:15 Roughing the Passer on Southern, 15 yards 0% FRES +2.2 pts
Q2 15:00 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% SOU +2.3 pts
Q2 10:58 False Start on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +0.7 pts
Q2 7:12 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 0 yards 0% SOU +0.7 pts
Q2 7:12 Illegal Formation on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +1.4 pts
Q3 14:09 Holding on Southern, 7 yards 0% FRES +1.1 pts
Q3 8:27 Face Mask on Southern, 9 yards 0% FRES +0.3 pts
Q3 8:15 Ineligible Downfield on Fresno State, 5 yards 0% SOU +0.9 pts
Q4 10:37 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Southern, 5 yards 0% FRES +0.4 pts
Q4 9:30 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% SOU +0.5 pts

When it happened

Fresno State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Fresno State was ahead in it, below while Southern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:06 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% SOU SOU: Punt
2 Q1 10:11 False Start on Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% FRES FRES: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:54 Fresno State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedSouthern was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +0% FRES FRES: Punt
4 Q1 1:15 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yardsJudgment callsRoughing the Passer on Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% SOU SOU: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedHolding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% SOU FRES: Punt
6 Q2 7:12 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 0 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Formation on Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% FRES SOU: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:27 Southern converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedSouthern converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% SOU SOU: Missed field goal
8 Q3 14:09 Holding on Southern, 7 yardsJudgment calls +0% FRES FRES: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Southern 0% · Fresno State 100%

Final margin
Fresno State by 49
Luck in points
10.2 for Fresno State
Luck-adjusted margin
Fresno State by 38.8
Replay with same day's form
Southern 0% · Fresno State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Southern · Fresno State

More from Week 3 2025

Every week 3 game, 2025