Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Missouri State at USC, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
USC beat Missouri State 73–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff USC was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Missouri State Bears | 13 |
|---|---|
 USC Trojans | 73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 USC about even · 0 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 0, USC wins 10.
- 1 MOST 20 USC 44
- 2 MOST 13 USC 48
- 3 MOST 10 USC 50
- 4 MOST 14 USC 59
- 5 MOST 14 USC 63
- 6 MOST 10 USC 63
- 7 MOST 17 USC 73
- 8 MOST 3 USC 63
- 9 MOST 0 USC 66
- 10 MOST 7 USC 80
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 0% of them, USC 100%. The line is what actually happened: USC by 60.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| USC by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| USC by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| USC by 17+ | 97.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 44 yds made · 66% expected
- Y. Obeid, 46 yds made · 63% expected
- R. Sayeri, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 6 for 60 yards, USC 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:24 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Delay of Game on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +4.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USC +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:17 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri State, 15 yards | 0% USC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:51 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 15 yards | 0% USC +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:58 | Sideline Interference on USC, 15 yards | 0% MOST +6.3 pts |
| Q3 0:22 | Illegal Formation on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:04 | Holding on USC, 10 yards | 0% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Missouri State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% USC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:08 | Illegal Use of Hands on Missouri State, 15 yards | 0% USC +1.6 pts |
When it happened
USC’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:35 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% MOST | MOST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:10 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% USC | MOST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:12 | Y. Obeid made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +0% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:28 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% USC | MOST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:34 | USC converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:25 | USC converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% USC | USC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:08 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% USC | MOST: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Missouri State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% USC | USC: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 0% · USC 100%
- Final margin
- USC by 60
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- USC by 63.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 0% · USC 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Missouri State · 
USC
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Western Kentucky WKU 41–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Maine at Liberty LIB 28–7 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bryant at New Mexico State NMSU 19–3 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner