Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Montana State at Oregon, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Montana State 59–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Montana State Bobcats | 13 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oregon about even · 0 Montana State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Montana State wins 0, Oregon wins 10.
- 1 MTST 30 ORE 38
- 2 MTST 17 ORE 31
- 3 MTST 7 ORE 28
- 4 MTST 28 ORE 52
- 5 MTST 20 ORE 49
- 6 MTST 3 ORE 35
- 7 MTST 10 ORE 45
- 8 MTST 7 ORE 45
- 9 MTST 7 ORE 49
- 10 MTST 10 ORE 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Montana State wins 0% of them, Oregon 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 46.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Montana State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Montana State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Montana State by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 95.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Sappington, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Sansted, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- M. Sansted, 42 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Montana State 7 for 54 yards, Oregon 3 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:52 | Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MTST +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:48 | Illegal Formation on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:16 | False Start on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:08 | Delay of Game on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MTST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:34 | False Start on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Roughing the Passer on Montana State, 15 yards | 0% ORE +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Pass Interference on Montana State, 14 yards | 0% ORE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:14 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | 0% MTST +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:43 | False Start on Montana State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:50 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 14 yards | 0% MTST +2.7 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:52 | Montana State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedOffside on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MTST | MTST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:48 | Illegal Formation on Montana State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:41 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedBlocked punt by OregonSpecial teams | +0% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 6:16 | Montana State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedA. Sappington made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for himFalse Start on Montana State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ORE | MTST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 1:35 | Montana State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% ORE | MTST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 15:00 | Oregon converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedOregon was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedOregon converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 11:08 | Montana State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedDelay of Game on Montana State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MTST | MTST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 4:34 | Oregon converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedMontana State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedMontana State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedMontana State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedMontana State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on Montana State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MTST | ORE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Montana State 0% · Oregon 100%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 46
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 40.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Montana State 0% · Oregon 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Montana State · 
Oregon
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Idaho at Washington State WSU 13–10 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAlbany at Iowa IOWA 34–7 · replay 93% for the winner