Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Nevada at Penn State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Penn State beat Nevada 46–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Penn State was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 11 |
|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Penn State about even · −2 Nevada
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nevada wins 0, Penn State wins 10.
- 1 NEV 17 PSU 24
- 2 NEV 24 PSU 37
- 3 NEV 6 PSU 23
- 4 NEV 14 PSU 35
- 5 NEV 6 PSU 31
- 6 NEV 10 PSU 38
- 7 NEV 10 PSU 42
- 8 NEV 13 PSU 49
- 9 NEV 0 PSU 41
- 10 NEV 7 PSU 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nevada wins 2% of them, Penn State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nevada by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 11.1% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 81.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- J. McFadden, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Barker, 28 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Barker, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- R. Barker, 39 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Nevada 3 for 14 yards, Penn State 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | Offside on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Holding on Penn State, 10 yards | 0% NEV +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:47 | Illegal Block on Penn State, 10 yards | 0% NEV +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:31 | False Start on Nevada, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards | 0% NEV +2.6 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:25 | Delay of Game on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEV +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Nevada converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedNevada converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% NEV | NEV: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 9:46 | Penn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedNevada fumbled and Penn State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:57 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedPenn State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% NEV | PSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:20 | Penn State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedOffside on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:57 | Nevada converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedNevada was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% PSU | NEV: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 4:52 | J. McFadden made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +0% PSU | NEV: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:40 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% NEV | PSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 1:56 | Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% PSU | NEV: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nevada 0% · Penn State 100%
- Final margin
- Penn State by 35
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 32.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Nevada 2% · Penn State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Nevada · 
Penn State
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner