Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Fordham at Boston College, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Boston College beat Fordham 66–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boston College wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Boston College was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Fordham Rams | 10 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Boston College about even · 0 Fordham
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fordham wins 0, Boston College wins 10.
- 1 FOR 2 BC 20
- 2 FOR 3 BC 29
- 3 FOR 3 BC 34
- 4 FOR 3 BC 38
- 5 FOR 13 BC 51
- 6 FOR 3 BC 45
- 7 FOR 0 BC 45
- 8 FOR 6 BC 55
- 9 FOR 3 BC 55
- 10 FOR 3 BC 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fordham wins 0% of them, Boston College 100%. The line is what actually happened: Boston College by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fordham by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Fordham by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Fordham by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Henderson, 46 yds made · 63% expected
- L. Lombardo, 48 yds made · 58% expected
Penalties: Fordham 4 for 15 yards, Boston College 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:11 | Delay of Game on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:14 | Holding on Fordham, 0 yards | 0% BC 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:56 | Illegal Substitution on Fordham, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:11 | Holding on Fordham, 10 yards | 0% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:52 | Roughing the Passer on Boston College, 15 yards | 0% FOR +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:15 | Boston College converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% BC | BC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:27 | Fordham converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% FOR | FOR: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:13 | Fordham was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% BC | FOR: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 6:04 | B. Henderson made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +0% FOR | FOR: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:12 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +0% FOR | BC: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 8:45 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% FOR | BC: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 6:11 | Fordham was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% BC | FOR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 4:01 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% FOR | BC: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fordham 0% · Boston College 100%
- Final margin
- Boston College by 56
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boston College by 50.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Fordham 0% · Boston College 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Fordham · 
Boston College
More from Week 1 2025
- California at Oregon State CAL 34–15 · replay 39% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Miami MIA 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at SMU SMU 42–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Wake Forest WAKE 10–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner