Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Bucknell at Air Force, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Air Force beat Bucknell 49–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Air Force wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Air Force was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Bucknell Bison | 13 |
|---|---|
 Air Force Falcons | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Air Force about even · 0 Bucknell
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bucknell wins 0, Air Force wins 10.
- 1 BUCK 13 AF 24
- 2 BUCK 20 AF 38
- 3 BUCK 7 AF 31
- 4 BUCK 14 AF 42
- 5 BUCK 3 AF 34
- 6 BUCK 7 AF 41
- 7 BUCK 13 AF 49
- 8 BUCK 7 AF 48
- 9 BUCK 3 AF 48
- 10 BUCK 3 AF 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bucknell wins 0% of them, Air Force 100%. The line is what actually happened: Air Force by 36.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bucknell by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Bucknell by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Bucknell by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Air Force by 17+ | 91.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Medina, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
- M. Schearer, 37 yds made · 72% expected
- M. Schearer, 39 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Bucknell 6 for 50 yards, Air Force 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:09 | Offside on Bucknell, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:35 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yards | 0% BUCK +2.4 pts |
| Q2 13:35 | False Start on Bucknell, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:14 | Holding on Bucknell, 10 yards | 0% AF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Holding on Air Force, 10 yards | 0% BUCK +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:57 | Illegal Block on Bucknell, 10 yards | 0% AF +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:37 | Personal Foul on Air Force, 5 yards | 0% BUCK +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Pass Interference on Bucknell, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% AF +5.8 pts |
| Q3 3:42 | Illegal Formation on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUCK +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:19 | Personal Foul on Air Force, 15 yards | 0% BUCK +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Bucknell, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Air Force’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:41 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% BUCK | AF: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:16 | Bucknell was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% AF | BUCK: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:09 | Offside on Bucknell, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:03 | Bucknell was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% AF | BUCK: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 0:37 | Bucknell converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% BUCK | BUCK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 13:35 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Bucknell, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% BUCK | BUCK: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 10:41 | Air Force converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 6:00 | Pass Interference on Bucknell, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% AF | AF: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bucknell 0% · Air Force 100%
- Final margin
- Air Force by 36
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Air Force by 35.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Bucknell 0% · Air Force 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Bucknell · 
Air Force
More from Week 1 2025
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- UTEP at Utah State USU 28–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Lafayette at Bowling Green BGSU 26–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Colorado State at Washington WASH 38–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Nevada at Penn State PSU 46–11 · replay 98% for the winner