luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 23, 2025

Fresno State at Kansas, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Kansas beat Fresno State 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas wins 10 of 10. Fresno State had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Fresno State.

Before kickoff Kansas was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:25 left): Offside on Kansas, 2 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to Fresno State.

Final

Fresno State Bulldogs 7
Kansas Jayhawks 31

August 23, 2025 · Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Kansas −14

Luck index 0 Kansas about even · 0 Fresno State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Fresno State wins 0, Kansas wins 10.

  1. 1 FRES 31 KU 49
  2. 2 FRES 14 KU 41
  3. 3 FRES 17 KU 49
  4. 4 FRES 10 KU 45
  5. 5 FRES 3 KU 42
  6. 6 FRES 7 KU 49
  7. 7 FRES 10 KU 56
  8. 8 FRES 7 KU 56
  9. 9 FRES 10 KU 63
  10. 10 FRES 0 KU 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Fresno State wins 0% of them, Kansas 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kansas by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Fresno State by 17+0.0%
Fresno State by 9–160.0%
Fresno State by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Kansas by 1–80.7%
Kansas by 9–161.8%
Kansas by 17+97.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to Fresno State: the final margin was Kansas by 24, without the luck Kansas by 27.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Marjan, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • D. Lynch, 55 yds missed · 45% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Fresno State 11 for 110 yards, Kansas 3 for 12 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:25 Offside on Kansas, 2 yards · pre-snap +12% FRES +1.1 pts
Q1 7:20 Face Mask on Fresno State, 15 yards 0% KU +1.6 pts
Q1 5:51 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards +1% KU +0.6 pts
Q1 5:28 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FRES +0.5 pts
Q1 4:44 Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yards +2% KU +1.6 pts
Q1 3:59 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards +1% KU +0.6 pts
Q2 13:16 Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yards +2% KU +1.6 pts
Q2 4:57 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KU +0.9 pts
Q3 14:56 Offside on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +1.0 pts
Q3 9:16 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% KU +0.6 pts
Q3 5:03 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% KU +0.6 pts
Q4 14:56 Holding on Kansas, 0 yards 0% FRES 0.0 pts
Q4 12:54 Holding on Kansas, 10 yards 0% FRES +0.6 pts
Q4 5:52 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% KU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Kansas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kansas was ahead in it, below while Fresno State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Kansas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +2% KU KU: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:17 Kansas converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +1% KU KU: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:56 Fresno State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +2% FRES FRES: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:25 Offside on Kansas, 2 yardsPre-snap flags +12% FRES FRES: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:44 Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% KU KU: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:57 Fresno State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% FRES FRES: Punt
7 Q2 13:16 Pass Interference on Fresno State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% KU KU: Punt
8 Q2 11:48 Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +1% FRES KU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Fresno State 0% · Kansas 100%

Final margin
Kansas by 24
Luck in points
3.9 for Fresno State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kansas by 27.9
Replay with same day's form
Fresno State 0% · Kansas 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Fresno State · Kansas

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