luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Lamar at North Texas, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

North Texas beat Lamar 51–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff North Texas was a 96% favorite.

Final

Lamar Cardinals 0
North Texas Mean Green 51

August 30, 2025 · DATCU Stadium · Closing line: North Texas −27.5

Luck index 0 North Texas about even · 0 Lamar

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lamar wins 0, North Texas wins 10.

  1. 1 LAM 6 UNT 31
  2. 2 LAM 0 UNT 31
  3. 3 LAM 0 UNT 37
  4. 4 LAM 0 UNT 41
  5. 5 LAM 0 UNT 43
  6. 6 LAM 3 UNT 49
  7. 7 LAM 0 UNT 49
  8. 8 LAM 0 UNT 52
  9. 9 LAM 0 UNT 56
  10. 10 LAM 0 UNT 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lamar wins 0% of them, North Texas 100%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 51.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lamar by 17+0.0%
Lamar by 9–160.0%
Lamar by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
North Texas by 1–80.3%
North Texas by 9–161.6%
North Texas by 17+98.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.8 points to North Texas: the final margin was North Texas by 51, without the luck North Texas by 42.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Lamar 14 for 99 yards, North Texas 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:36 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.8 pts
Q1 7:36 Personal Foul on Lamar, 15 yards 0% UNT +0.4 pts
Q1 1:22 Pass Interference on Lamar, 15 yards 0% UNT +1.2 pts
Q1 1:10 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards 0% LAM +0.3 pts
Q2 11:58 False Start on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.8 pts
Q2 10:50 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.5 pts
Q2 2:56 Face Mask on Lamar, 15 yards 0% UNT +1.6 pts
Q2 1:16 Illegal Snap on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAM +0.3 pts
Q2 0:53 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.2 pts
Q2 0:46 Holding on Lamar, 8 yards 0% UNT +0.3 pts
Q2 0:34 Holding on Lamar, 6 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNT +1.1 pts
Q3 12:09 Unnecessary Roughness on Lamar, 2 yards 0% UNT +0.8 pts
Q3 7:57 Offside on Lamar, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.9 pts
Q3 5:42 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.4 pts
Q4 13:53 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.6 pts
Q4 3:24 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAM +0.2 pts
Q4 1:43 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.1 pts

When it happened

North Texas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Texas was ahead in it, below while Lamar was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:55 North Texas converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +0% UNT UNT: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:21 North Texas’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% LAM UNT: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:16 Lamar was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +0% UNT LAM: Punt
4 Q1 8:36 Delay of Game on Lamar, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% UNT UNT: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:31 North Texas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% UNT UNT: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:00 North Texas converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +0% UNT UNT: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 13:51 North Texas was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +0% LAM UNT: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:34 Holding on Lamar, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% UNT UNT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lamar 0% · North Texas 100%

Final margin
North Texas by 51
Luck in points
8.8 for North Texas
Luck-adjusted margin
North Texas by 42.2
Replay with same day's form
Lamar 0% · North Texas 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Lamar · North Texas

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