luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Charleston Southern at Vanderbilt, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Charleston Southern 45–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 99% favorite.

Final

Charleston Southern Buccaneers 3
Vanderbilt Commodores 45

August 30, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −38.5

Luck index 0 Vanderbilt about even · 0 Charleston Southern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Charleston Southern wins 0, Vanderbilt wins 10.

  1. 1 CHSO 7 VAN 31
  2. 2 CHSO 0 VAN 31
  3. 3 CHSO 3 VAN 39
  4. 4 CHSO 3 VAN 43
  5. 5 CHSO 0 VAN 42
  6. 6 CHSO 0 VAN 45
  7. 7 CHSO 10 VAN 58
  8. 8 CHSO 0 VAN 52
  9. 9 CHSO 0 VAN 56
  10. 10 CHSO 0 VAN 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Charleston Southern wins 0% of them, Vanderbilt 100%. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 42.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Charleston Southern by 17+0.0%
Charleston Southern by 9–160.0%
Charleston Southern by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Vanderbilt by 1–80.4%
Vanderbilt by 9–161.8%
Vanderbilt by 17+97.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to Charleston Southern: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 42, without the luck Vanderbilt by 44.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Taylor, 35 yds made · 84% expected
  • Z. Gordon, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Charleston Southern 6 for 64 yards, Vanderbilt 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:57 Illegal Snap on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.8 pts
Q2 12:51 Delay of Game on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHSO +0.4 pts
Q2 8:06 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHSO +0.6 pts
Q2 2:19 Holding on Charleston Southern, 10 yards 0% VAN 0.0 pts
Q2 0:17 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CHSO +5.5 pts
Q2 0:11 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CHSO +2.8 pts
Q3 11:03 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHSO +0.9 pts
Q3 5:54 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CHSO +2.9 pts
Q3 5:49 Pass Interference on Charleston Southern, 15 yards 0% VAN +2.0 pts
Q4 12:47 Pass Interference on Charleston Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% VAN +3.1 pts
Q4 12:47 Pass Interference on Charleston Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% VAN +4.0 pts
Q4 4:44 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards 0% CHSO +2.0 pts
Q4 4:37 Tripping on Charleston Southern, 14 yards 0% VAN +1.5 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Charleston Southern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:57 Illegal Snap on Charleston Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% VAN VAN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:39 Charleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% VAN CHSO: Punt
3 Q1 6:59 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +0% VAN VAN: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:31 Charleston Southern converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +0% CHSO CHSO: Turnover
5 Q1 3:20 Charleston Southern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% CHSO CHSO: Turnover
6 Q2 2:19 Holding on Charleston Southern, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% VAN VAN: End of half
7 Q4 12:47 Pass Interference on Charleston Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsPass Interference on Charleston Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% VAN VAN: Field goal
8 Q4 4:37 Tripping on Charleston Southern, 14 yardsJudgment calls +0% VAN VAN: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Charleston Southern 0% · Vanderbilt 100%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 42
Luck in points
2.6 for Charleston Southern
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 44.6
Replay with same day's form
Charleston Southern 0% · Vanderbilt 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Charleston Southern · Vanderbilt

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