Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Georgia Southern at Fresno State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Georgia Southern 42–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Fresno State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Georgia Southern: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Fresno State it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:33 left): Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 14 |
|---|---|
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Fresno State about even · 0 Georgia Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 0, Fresno State wins 10.
- 1 GASO 24 FRES 38
- 2 GASO 6 FRES 28
- 3 GASO 10 FRES 38
- 4 GASO 3 FRES 34
- 5 GASO 10 FRES 45
- 6 GASO 7 FRES 45
- 7 GASO 9 FRES 50
- 8 GASO 0 FRES 45
- 9 GASO 3 FRES 52
- 10 GASO 6 FRES 65
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Georgia Southern
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Fresno State it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Georgia Southern: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.07 | worse by 0.01 |
| Georgia Southern defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.41 | +0.11 | worse by 0.30 |
| Fresno State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.41 | +0.06 | better by 0.35 |
| Fresno State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.07 | better by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Southern wins 0% of them, Fresno State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Fresno State by 17+ | 96.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- D. Lynch, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Georgia Southern 4 for 50 yards, Fresno State 2 for 18 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:27 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% FRES +2.0 pts |
| Q2 11:27 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +2% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +4% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:38 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% FRES +2.4 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | 0% FRES +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | Personal Foul on Fresno State, 8 yards | 0% GASO +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Fresno State’s chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:25 | Fresno State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:27 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:52 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% FRES | FRES: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 3:03 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 11:33 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedGeorgia Southern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +10% FRES | GASO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FRES | FRES: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 9:51 | Fresno State fumbled and Georgia Southern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% GASO | FRES: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 13:06 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% FRES | GASO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Southern 0% · Fresno State 100%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 28
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 25.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Southern 0% · Fresno State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Georgia Southern · 
Fresno State
More from Week 1 2025
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Idaho State at UNLV UNLV 38–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Stanford at Hawai'i HAW 23–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- UTEP at Utah State USU 28–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- Wyoming at Akron WYO 10–0 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner