College football · Week 10 2026 · Saturday, November 7
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction and pick
Our Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats pick: Kansas State by 12.1, 77% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 7, time to be announced · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Kansas State by 12.1 · 77% to win
Ours: Kansas State by 12.1Oklahoma State win 23%Kansas State win 77%5649423528211470714212835424956← Oklahoma State win byKansas State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Oklahoma State win
23.4%
Kansas State win
76.6%
Middle 50%: Kansas State by 2 to Kansas State by 24
50%
Middle 90%: Oklahoma State by 16 to Kansas State by 40
90%
Middle 95%: Oklahoma State by 21 to Kansas State by 45
95%
Exactly Kansas State by 3
5.7%
Exactly Kansas State by 7
5.1%
Exactly Oklahoma State by 3
4.4%
Exactly Kansas State by 14
4.2%
Exactly Kansas State by 17
3.9%
P50
Half of games like this end between Kansas State by 2 and Kansas State by 24.
P90
9 in 10 between Oklahoma State by 16 and Kansas State by 40.
P95
19 in 20 between Oklahoma State by 21 and Kansas State by 45.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State: questions and answers
Who will win Oklahoma State vs Kansas State?
Our forecast picks Kansas State, with 77% to win; Oklahoma State win 23% of the time.
What’s the spread for Oklahoma State vs Kansas State?
Our spread: Kansas State −12.1. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Oklahoma State vs Kansas State?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Oklahoma State at 
Kansas State
