Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Nicholls at Kansas State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat Nicholls 71–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas State was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Nicholls Colonels | 3 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Kansas State about even · 0 Nicholls
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nicholls wins 0, Kansas State wins 10.
- 1 NICH 10 KSU 35
- 2 NICH 7 KSU 41
- 3 NICH 3 KSU 41
- 4 NICH 3 KSU 45
- 5 NICH 7 KSU 52
- 6 NICH 0 KSU 49
- 7 NICH 0 KSU 52
- 8 NICH 0 KSU 58
- 9 NICH 3 KSU 65
- 10 NICH 3 KSU 69
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nicholls wins 0% of them, Kansas State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 68.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nicholls by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Nicholls by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Nicholls by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 96.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Nicholls 2 for 26 yards, Kansas State 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:49 | Personal Foul on Nicholls, 15 yards | 0% KSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:25 | Illegal Use of Hands on Nicholls, 11 yards | 0% KSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NICH +2.4 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:49 | Personal Foul on Nicholls, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:29 | Nicholls was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% KSU | NICH: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:20 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:59 | Kansas State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% KSU | KSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:17 | Nicholls was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% KSU | NICH: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 5:00 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% KSU | KSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:53 | Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% NICH | KSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 0:29 | Return touchdown by Kansas StateSpecial teams | +0% KSU | KSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nicholls 0% · Kansas State 100%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 68
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Kansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 63.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Nicholls 0% · Kansas State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Nicholls · 
Kansas State
More from Week 1 2026
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Rice RICE 31–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State ISU 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA UTSA 45–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lamar at Louisiana UL 38–7 · replay 100% for the winner