luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Monmouth at Western Michigan, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Western Michigan beat Monmouth 49–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 97% favorite.

Final

Monmouth Hawks 14
Western Michigan Broncos 49

September 12, 2026 · Waldo Stadium · Closing line: Western Michigan −29.5

Luck index 0 Western Michigan about even · 0 Monmouth

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Monmouth wins 0, Western Michigan wins 10.

  1. 1 MONM 7 WMU 27
  2. 2 MONM 7 WMU 35
  3. 3 MONM 7 WMU 41
  4. 4 MONM 0 WMU 38
  5. 5 MONM 17 WMU 58
  6. 6 MONM 7 WMU 51
  7. 7 MONM 10 WMU 58
  8. 8 MONM 3 WMU 55
  9. 9 MONM 0 WMU 56
  10. 10 MONM 3 WMU 68

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Monmouth wins 0% of them, Western Michigan 100%. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Monmouth by 17+0.0%
Monmouth by 9–160.0%
Monmouth by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Western Michigan by 1–80.2%
Western Michigan by 9–162.1%
Western Michigan by 17+97.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to Western Michigan: the final margin was Western Michigan by 35, without the luck Western Michigan by 30. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Monmouth 4 for 34 yards, Western Michigan 8 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:41 False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MONM +0.5 pts
Q1 10:45 Unnecessary Roughness on Western Michigan, 15 yards +1% MONM +1.6 pts
Q1 9:26 Pass Interference on Monmouth, 11 yards 0% WMU +0.5 pts
Q1 9:26 Offside on Monmouth, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WMU +1.2 pts
Q2 14:27 Pass Interference on Monmouth, 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% WMU +6.6 pts
Q2 8:27 Illegal Block on Western Michigan, 10 yards 0% MONM +0.6 pts
Q2 5:19 Holding on Monmouth, 3 yards 0% WMU +0.7 pts
Q2 1:19 Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 3 yards 0% MONM +1.2 pts
Q3 11:15 Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards 0% MONM +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards 0% MONM +1.3 pts
Q4 12:03 False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MONM +0.4 pts
Q4 11:16 False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MONM +0.4 pts

When it happened

Western Michigan’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Western Michigan was ahead in it, below while Monmouth was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Monmouth converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedMonmouth converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedMonmouth was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedMonmouth fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% MONM MONM: Punt
2 Q1 11:41 Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedFalse Start on Western Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% MONM WMU: Punt
3 Q1 10:45 Monmouth was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Western Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% MONM MONM: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 9:26 Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedWestern Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMonmouth was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedPass Interference on Monmouth, 11 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Monmouth, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% WMU WMU: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 2:32 Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% MONM WMU: Punt
6 Q2 15:00 Monmouth was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% WMU MONM: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 14:27 Monmouth was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedWestern Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedPass Interference on Monmouth, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% WMU MONM: Punt
8 Q2 10:53 Monmouth converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedMonmouth was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% MONM MONM: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Monmouth 0% · Western Michigan 100%

Final margin
Western Michigan by 35
Luck in points
5.0 for Western Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin
Western Michigan by 30.0
Replay with same day's form
Monmouth 0% · Western Michigan 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Monmouth · Western Michigan

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