College football · Week 11 2026 · Wednesday, November 11
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan prediction and pick
Our Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas pick: Central Michigan by 12.4, 77% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Wed, Nov 11, time to be announced · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Central Michigan by 12.4 · 77% to win
Ours: Central Michigan by 12.4Sacramento State win 23%Central Michigan win 77%5649423528211470714212835424956← Sacramento State win byCentral Michigan win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Sacramento State win
23.2%
Central Michigan win
76.8%
Middle 50%: Central Michigan by 2 to Central Michigan by 24
50%
Middle 90%: Sacramento State by 16 to Central Michigan by 41
90%
Middle 95%: Sacramento State by 21 to Central Michigan by 46
95%
Exactly Central Michigan by 3
5.6%
Exactly Central Michigan by 7
5.0%
Exactly Sacramento State by 3
4.4%
Exactly Central Michigan by 14
4.1%
Exactly Central Michigan by 17
3.9%
P50
Half of games like this end between Central Michigan by 2 and Central Michigan by 24.
P90
9 in 10 between Sacramento State by 16 and Central Michigan by 41.
P95
19 in 20 between Sacramento State by 21 and Central Michigan by 46.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Sacramento State vs Central Michigan: questions and answers
Who will win Sacramento State vs Central Michigan?
Our forecast picks Central Michigan, with 77% to win; Sacramento State win 23% of the time.
What’s the spread for Sacramento State vs Central Michigan?
Our spread: Central Michigan −12.4. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Sacramento State vs Central Michigan?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Sacramento State at 
Central Michigan
