College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
Washington State vs Texas State prediction and pick
Our Washington State Cougars at Texas State Bobcats pick: Texas State by 6.5, 65% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Texas State by 6.5Washington State win 35%Texas State win 65%5649423528211470714212835424956← Washington State win byTexas State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Washington State win
35.2%
Texas State win
64.8%
Middle 50%: Washington State by 5 to Texas State by 18
50%
Middle 90%: Washington State by 21 to Texas State by 35
90%
Middle 95%: Washington State by 27 to Texas State by 40
95%
Exactly Texas State by 3
6.4%
Exactly Washington State by 3
5.6%
Exactly Texas State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Washington State by 7
3.9%
Exactly Texas State by 14
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Washington State by 5 and Texas State by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between Washington State by 21 and Texas State by 35.
P95
19 in 20 between Washington State by 27 and Texas State by 40.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Washington State vs Texas State: questions and answers
Who will win Washington State vs Texas State?
Our forecast picks Texas State, with 65% to win; Washington State win 35% of the time.
What’s the spread for Washington State vs Texas State?
Our spread: Texas State −6.5. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Washington State vs Texas State?
Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 6:00 pm ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Washington State at 
Texas State
