College football · Week 10 2026 · Saturday, November 7
Missouri State vs Florida International prediction and pick
Our Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers pick: Florida International by 5.2, 62% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Florida International by 5.2Missouri State win 38%Florida International win 62%5649423528211470714212835424956← Missouri State win byFlorida International win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Missouri State win
37.8%
Florida International win
62.2%
Middle 50%: Missouri State by 7 to Florida International by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Missouri State by 22 to Florida International by 33
90%
Middle 95%: Missouri State by 28 to Florida International by 38
95%
Exactly Florida International by 3
6.6%
Exactly Missouri State by 3
5.9%
Exactly Florida International by 7
5.3%
Exactly Missouri State by 7
4.1%
Exactly Florida International by 14
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Missouri State by 7 and Florida International by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Missouri State by 22 and Florida International by 33.
P95
19 in 20 between Missouri State by 28 and Florida International by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Missouri State vs Florida International: questions and answers
Who will win Missouri State vs Florida International?
Our forecast picks Florida International, with 62% to win; Missouri State win 38% of the time.
What’s the spread for Missouri State vs Florida International?
Our spread: Florida International −5.2. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Missouri State vs Florida International?
Saturday, November 7, 2026, at 4:00 pm ET, at Pitbull Stadium.
Missouri State at 
Florida International
