College football · Week 10 2026 · Saturday, November 7
Florida State vs Boston College prediction and pick
Our Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles pick: Florida State by 9.7, 72% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 7, time to be announced · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Florida State by 9.7 · 72% to win
Ours: Florida State by 9.7Florida State win 72%Boston College win 28%5649423528211470714212835424956← Florida State win byBoston College win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Florida State win
72.0%
Boston College win
28.0%
Middle 50%: Florida State by 21 to Boston College by 3
50%
Middle 90%: Florida State by 38 to Boston College by 18
90%
Middle 95%: Florida State by 42 to Boston College by 24
95%
Exactly Florida State by 3
6.1%
Exactly Florida State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Boston College by 3
5.0%
Exactly Florida State by 14
4.1%
Exactly Florida State by 17
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Florida State by 21 and Boston College by 3.
P90
9 in 10 between Florida State by 38 and Boston College by 18.
P95
19 in 20 between Florida State by 42 and Boston College by 24.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Florida State vs Boston College: questions and answers
Who will win Florida State vs Boston College?
Our forecast picks Florida State, with 72% to win; Boston College win 28% of the time.
What’s the spread for Florida State vs Boston College?
Our spread: Florida State −9.7. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Florida State vs Boston College?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA).
Florida State at 
Boston College
