Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Youngstown State at Kentucky, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Youngstown State 45–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kentucky wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Kentucky was a 93% favorite.
Final
 Youngstown State Penguins | 13 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Kentucky about even · 0 Youngstown State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Youngstown State wins 0, Kentucky wins 10.
- 1 YSU 7 UK 17
- 2 YSU 13 UK 31
- 3 YSU 10 UK 34
- 4 YSU 14 UK 42
- 5 YSU 14 UK 45
- 6 YSU 3 UK 38
- 7 YSU 0 UK 38
- 8 YSU 0 UK 42
- 9 YSU 17 UK 62
- 10 YSU 3 UK 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Youngstown State wins 0% of them, Kentucky 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Youngstown State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Youngstown State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Youngstown State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Zouagui, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Youngstown State 3 for 26 yards, Kentucky 6 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:51 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% YSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:52 | Holding on Youngstown State, 10 yards | 0% UK +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:44 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% YSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:54 | Pass Interference on Youngstown State, 11 yards | 0% YSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 2:52 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% YSU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | False Start on Youngstown State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:06 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% YSU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 8:49 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% YSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:11 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% YSU +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:51 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% YSU | YSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:40 | Youngstown State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% UK | YSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:41 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:34 | Youngstown State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +0% YSU | YSU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 0:45 | Youngstown State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% UK | YSU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 0:32 | Youngstown State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% UK | YSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 13:52 | Holding on Youngstown State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:41 | Youngstown State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% UK | YSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Youngstown State 0% · Kentucky 100%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 32
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 29.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Youngstown State 0% · Kentucky 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Youngstown State · 
Kentucky
More from Week 1 2026
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Murray State at Middle Tennessee MTSU 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- South Dakota State at Northwestern NU 34–18 · replay 97% for the winner
- North Alabama at Arkansas ARK 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas State at Texas TEX 59–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- East Carolina at Alabama ALA 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Indiana State at Purdue PUR 44–19 · replay 99% for the winner
- UTEP at Oklahoma OU 51–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida FLA 66–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Furman at Tennessee TENN 56–9 · replay 100% for the winner