College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
Missouri State vs Jacksonville State prediction and pick
Our Missouri State Bears at Jacksonville State Gamecocks pick: Jacksonville State by 8.9, 70% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Jacksonville State by 8.9Missouri State win 30%Jacksonville State win 70%5649423528211470714212835424956← Missouri State win byJacksonville State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Missouri State win
30.0%
Jacksonville State win
70.0%
Middle 50%: Missouri State by 3 to Jacksonville State by 21
50%
Middle 90%: Missouri State by 19 to Jacksonville State by 37
90%
Middle 95%: Missouri State by 24 to Jacksonville State by 42
95%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 3
6.2%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 7
5.2%
Exactly Missouri State by 3
5.1%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 14
4.0%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 17
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Missouri State by 3 and Jacksonville State by 21.
P90
9 in 10 between Missouri State by 19 and Jacksonville State by 37.
P95
19 in 20 between Missouri State by 24 and Jacksonville State by 42.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Missouri State vs Jacksonville State: questions and answers
Who will win Missouri State vs Jacksonville State?
Our forecast picks Jacksonville State, with 70% to win; Missouri State win 30% of the time.
What’s the spread for Missouri State vs Jacksonville State?
Our spread: Jacksonville State −8.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Missouri State vs Jacksonville State?
Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 2:00 pm ET, at AmFirst Stadium.
Missouri State at 
Jacksonville State
