College football · Week 7 2026 · Tuesday, October 13
Florida International vs Jacksonville State prediction and pick
Our Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks pick: Jacksonville State by 6.8, 66% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 3 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.4, so about 54% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Jacksonville State by 6.8Florida International win 34%Jacksonville State win 66%5649423528211470714212835424956← Florida International win byJacksonville State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Florida International win
33.7%
Jacksonville State win
66.3%
Middle 50%: Florida International by 4 to Jacksonville State by 18
50%
Middle 90%: Florida International by 21 to Jacksonville State by 34
90%
Middle 95%: Florida International by 25 to Jacksonville State by 39
95%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 3
6.6%
Exactly Florida International by 3
5.7%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 7
5.5%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 14
3.9%
Exactly Florida International by 7
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Florida International by 4 and Jacksonville State by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between Florida International by 21 and Jacksonville State by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between Florida International by 25 and Jacksonville State by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Florida International vs Jacksonville State: questions and answers
Who will win Florida International vs Jacksonville State?
Our forecast picks Jacksonville State, with 66% to win; Florida International win 34% of the time.
What’s the spread for Florida International vs Jacksonville State?
Our spread: Jacksonville State −6.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Florida International vs Jacksonville State?
Tuesday, October 13, 2026, at 8:00 pm ET, at AmFirst Stadium.
Florida International at 
Jacksonville State
