College football · Week 7 2026 · Wednesday, October 14
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State prediction and pick
Our Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears pick: Kennesaw State by 0.3, 51% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 3 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.4, so about 54% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Kennesaw State by 0.3Kennesaw State win 51%Missouri State win 49%494235282114707142128354249← Kennesaw State win byMissouri State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Kennesaw State win
50.8%
Missouri State win
49.2%
Middle 50%: Kennesaw State by 11 to Missouri State by 11
50%
Middle 90%: Kennesaw State by 28 to Missouri State by 27
90%
Middle 95%: Kennesaw State by 32 to Missouri State by 32
95%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 3
6.7%
Exactly Missouri State by 3
6.7%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 7
5.1%
Exactly Missouri State by 7
5.0%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 14
3.0%
P50
Half of games like this end between Kennesaw State by 11 and Missouri State by 11.
P90
9 in 10 between Kennesaw State by 28 and Missouri State by 27.
P95
19 in 20 between Kennesaw State by 32 and Missouri State by 32.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State: questions and answers
Who will win Kennesaw State vs Missouri State?
Our forecast picks Kennesaw State, with 51% to win; Missouri State win 49% of the time.
What’s the spread for Kennesaw State vs Missouri State?
Our spread: Kennesaw State −0.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Kennesaw State vs Missouri State?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 7:30 pm ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Kennesaw State at 
Missouri State
