College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State prediction and pick
Our Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Mississippi State Bulldogs pick: Mississippi State by 29.9, 96% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Mississippi State by 29.9Tennessee Tech win 4%Mississippi State win 96%5649423528211470714212835424956← Tennessee Tech win byMississippi State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Tennessee Tech win
3.9%
Mississippi State win
96.1%
Middle 50%: Mississippi State by 18 to Mississippi State by 42
50%
Middle 90%: Mississippi State by 3 to Mississippi State by 57
90%
Middle 95%: Tennessee Tech by 3 to Mississippi State by 62
95%
Exactly Mississippi State by 56
7.0%
Exactly Mississippi State by 28
4.3%
Exactly Mississippi State by 21
3.6%
Exactly Mississippi State by 35
3.6%
Exactly Mississippi State by 42
3.4%
P50
Half of games like this end between Mississippi State by 18 and Mississippi State by 42.
P90
9 in 10 between Mississippi State by 3 and Mississippi State by 57.
P95
19 in 20 between Tennessee Tech by 3 and Mississippi State by 62.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State: questions and answers
Who will win Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State?
Our forecast picks Mississippi State, with 96% to win; Tennessee Tech win 4% of the time.
What’s the spread for Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State?
Our spread: Mississippi State −29.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State?
Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 1:00 pm ET, at Davis Wade Stadium.
Tennessee Tech at 
Mississippi State
