Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
VMI at Virginia Tech, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Virginia Tech beat VMI 73–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia Tech was a 100% favorite.
Final
 VMI Keydets | 3 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Virginia Tech about even · 0 VMI
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. VMI wins 0, Virginia Tech wins 10.
- 1 VMI 0 VT 48
- 2 VMI 3 VT 58
- 3 VMI 0 VT 60
- 4 VMI 3 VT 66
- 5 VMI 0 VT 66
- 6 VMI 0 VT 70
- 7 VMI 0 VT 72
- 8 VMI 0 VT 76
- 9 VMI 0 VT 80
- 10 VMI 0 VT 87
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
VMI wins 0% of them, Virginia Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia Tech by 70.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| VMI by 17+ | 0.0% |
| VMI by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| VMI by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 94.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Love, 32 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Joyce, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- J. Joyce, 31 yds missed · 85% expected
Penalties: VMI 6 for 30 yards, Virginia Tech 11 for 108 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:36 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VMI +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:20 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:16 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VMI +0.1 pts |
| Q2 6:17 | Illegal Substitution on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:51 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% VMI +3.8 pts |
| Q2 5:14 | Delay of Game on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +2.0 pts |
| Q2 3:50 | False Start on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:02 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | 0% VMI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:04 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VMI +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:31 | Illegal Substitution on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:52 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | 0% VMI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:24 | Personal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | 0% VMI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:59 | Delay of Game on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:50 | Ineligible Downfield on Virginia Tech, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% VMI +2.8 pts |
| Q3 0:28 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 20 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Illegal Substitution on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:57 | Illegal Use of Hands on Virginia Tech, 13 yards, wiping out the play | +1% VT +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Virginia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:01 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:21 | Virginia Tech converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +0% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:12 | VMI was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% VT | VMI: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:07 | VMI was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% VT | VMI: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:43 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +0% VT | VT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:20 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% VT | VMI: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:28 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 20 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% VT | VMI: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:57 | Illegal Use of Hands on Virginia Tech, 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% VT | VMI: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
VMI 0% · Virginia Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Virginia Tech by 70
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for VMI
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia Tech by 70.2
- Replay with same day's form
- VMI 0% · Virginia Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
VMI · 
Virginia Tech
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- SMU at Florida State SMU 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner