Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026
Miami at Stanford, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Stanford 45–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 45 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 10, Stanford wins 0.
- 1 MIA 77 STAN 3
- 2 MIA 70 STAN 6
- 3 MIA 63 STAN 3
- 4 MIA 63 STAN 7
- 5 MIA 66 STAN 13
- 6 MIA 52 STAN 3
- 7 MIA 52 STAN 6
- 8 MIA 47 STAN 6
- 9 MIA 55 STAN 19
- 10 MIA 48 STAN 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 100% of them, Stanford 0%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 98.8% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Kenney, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- E. Kenney, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Weinberg, 46 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Miami 4 for 35 yards, Stanford 8 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:02 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.1 pts |
| Q1 1:33 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:14 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | 0% MIA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:31 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:12 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | 0% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:02 | Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:58 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 9:22 | Illegal Touching on Stanford, 0 yards | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:17 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:12 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 1:50 | Face Mask on Miami, 15 yards | 0% STAN +2.2 pts |
| Q4 13:44 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:54 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +1% MIA | STAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:07 | Miami converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +1% STAN | MIA: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 10:11 | Stanford converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% STAN | STAN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:57 | E. Kenney made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +2% MIA | STAN: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:33 | Miami converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% MIA | MIA: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 13:14 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:31 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:12 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% MIA | MIA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 100% · Stanford 0%
- Final margin
- Miami by 39
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 31.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 100% · Stanford 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Miami · 
Stanford
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- SMU at Florida State SMU 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- NC State at Virginia UVA 34–8 · replay 98% for the winner