luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Missouri beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Missouri was a 100% favorite.

Final

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 14
Missouri Tigers 54

September 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Missouri −55.5

Luck index 0 Missouri about even · 0 Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins 0, Missouri wins 10.

  1. 1 UAPB 6 MIZ 27
  2. 2 UAPB 10 MIZ 38
  3. 3 UAPB 7 MIZ 42
  4. 4 UAPB 6 MIZ 43
  5. 5 UAPB 17 MIZ 58
  6. 6 UAPB 0 MIZ 44
  7. 7 UAPB 17 MIZ 63
  8. 8 UAPB 0 MIZ 49
  9. 9 UAPB 7 MIZ 63
  10. 10 UAPB 0 MIZ 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins 0% of them, Missouri 100%. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 40.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 17+0.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 9–160.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Missouri by 1–80.4%
Missouri by 9–161.8%
Missouri by 17+97.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to Missouri: the final margin was Missouri by 40, without the luck Missouri by 32.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 8 for 71 yards, Missouri 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:48 Offside on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIZ +0.9 pts
Q2 14:53 Holding on Missouri, 10 yards 0% UAPB +0.6 pts
Q2 5:52 Personal Foul on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 15 yards 0% MIZ +0.9 pts
Q2 0:50 Targeting on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 15 yards 0% MIZ +1.6 pts
Q3 12:48 False Start on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIZ +1.3 pts
Q3 12:22 Holding on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 10 yards 0% MIZ +1.8 pts
Q3 5:48 Illegal Formation on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAPB +0.1 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAPB +0.6 pts
Q4 10:52 Personal Foul on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 1 yard, wiping out the play 0% MIZ +0.8 pts
Q4 6:12 Personal Foul on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 15 yards 0% MIZ +0.9 pts
Q4 2:25 False Start on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIZ +0.3 pts

When it happened

Missouri’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Missouri was ahead in it, below while Arkansas-Pine Bluff was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 Missouri converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% MIZ MIZ: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:07 Missouri converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% MIZ MIZ: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:38 Missouri converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% MIZ MIZ: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:41 Arkansas-Pine Bluff was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% MIZ UAPB: Punt
5 Q1 7:41 Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected +0% MIZ MIZ: Touchdown
6 Q1 7:03 Missouri converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected +0% MIZ MIZ: Touchdown
7 Q1 4:16 Missouri converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +0% MIZ MIZ: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:22 Holding on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% MIZ MIZ: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0% · Missouri 100%

Final margin
Missouri by 40
Luck in points
7.3 for Missouri
Luck-adjusted margin
Missouri by 32.7
Replay with same day's form
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0% · Missouri 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Arkansas-Pine Bluff · Missouri

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