Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat Northwestern State 80–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Northwestern State Demons | 6 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Louisiana Tech about even · 0 Northwestern State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northwestern State wins 0, Louisiana Tech wins 10.
- 1 NWST 3 LT 41
- 2 NWST 3 LT 48
- 3 NWST 7 LT 56
- 4 NWST 0 LT 53
- 5 NWST 0 LT 58
- 6 NWST 0 LT 61
- 7 NWST 0 LT 64
- 8 NWST 3 LT 70
- 9 NWST 0 LT 72
- 10 NWST 3 LT 84
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northwestern State wins 0% of them, Louisiana Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 74.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northwestern State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Northwestern State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Northwestern State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 97.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Williams III, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- H. Rioux, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- P. Williams III, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Northwestern State 6 for 64 yards, Louisiana Tech 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Northwestern State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:21 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | 0% NWST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:16 | Kick Catch Interference on Northwestern State, 23 yards | 0% LT +1.4 pts |
| Q3 11:34 | Face Mask on Northwestern State, 9 yards | 0% LT +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:49 | Delay of Game on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NWST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | Holding on Northwestern State, 2 yards | 0% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:08 | Pass Interference on Northwestern State, 10 yards | 0% LT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Northwestern State, 15 yards | 0% LT +3.5 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Northwestern State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedNorthwestern State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedNorthwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on Northwestern State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% NWST | NWST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:59 | P. Williams III made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +0% LT | NWST: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 7:52 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +0% LT | NWST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:21 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expectedHolding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% NWST | LT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 4:04 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% LT | NWST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 15:00 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedLouisiana Tech converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 13:48 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedNorthwestern State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% LT | NWST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 11:25 | Northwestern State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% LT | NWST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northwestern State 0% · Louisiana Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 74
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Louisiana Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 68.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Northwestern State 0% · Louisiana Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Northwestern State · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 1 2026
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Troy TROY 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Liberty at James Madison JMU 20–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Rice RICE 31–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Old Dominion ODU 31–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA UTSA 45–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lamar at Louisiana UL 38–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- North Carolina A&T at Georgia State GAST 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at Penn State PSU 45–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Maine at App State APP 55–3 · replay 100% for the winner