luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Morgan State at Arizona State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Arizona State beat Morgan State 70–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Arizona State was a 100% favorite.

Final

Morgan State Bears 7
Arizona State Sun Devils 70

September 5, 2026 · Mountain America Stadium · Closing line: Arizona State −43.5

Luck index 0 Arizona State about even · 0 Morgan State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Morgan State wins 0, Arizona State wins 10.

  1. 1 MORG 17 ASU 38
  2. 2 MORG 17 ASU 48
  3. 3 MORG 10 ASU 45
  4. 4 MORG 10 ASU 52
  5. 5 MORG 7 ASU 51
  6. 6 MORG 17 ASU 66
  7. 7 MORG 21 ASU 73
  8. 8 MORG 3 ASU 59
  9. 9 MORG 7 ASU 66
  10. 10 MORG 7 ASU 73

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Morgan State wins 0% of them, Arizona State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 63.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Morgan State by 17+0.0%
Morgan State by 9–160.0%
Morgan State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Arizona State by 1–80.5%
Arizona State by 9–161.6%
Arizona State by 17+97.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.0 points to Arizona State: the final margin was Arizona State by 63, without the luck Arizona State by 51. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Morgan State 5 for 37 yards, Arizona State 3 for 17 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ASU +0.9 pts
Q1 11:29 False Start on Morgan State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ASU +0.9 pts
Q1 4:43 Personal Foul on Arizona State, 2 yards 0% MORG +0.8 pts
Q2 12:14 Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards 0% MORG +0.6 pts
Q2 2:29 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MORG +1.1 pts
Q3 6:56 Illegal Block on Morgan State, 10 yards 0% ASU +0.6 pts
Q3 5:53 Personal Foul on Morgan State, 15 yards 0% ASU +1.6 pts
Q3 4:40 Pass Interference on Morgan State, 2 yards 0% ASU +0.3 pts

When it happened

Arizona State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arizona State was ahead in it, below while Morgan State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 False Start on Morgan State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% ASU ASU: Touchdown
2 Q1 14:07 Morgan State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% ASU MORG: Punt
3 Q1 11:20 Morgan State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +0% ASU MORG: Punt
4 Q1 9:05 Arizona State fumbled and Morgan State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% MORG ASU: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:05 Morgan State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +0% ASU MORG: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 7:32 Morgan State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +0% ASU MORG: Touchdown
7 Q1 6:43 Arizona State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +0% ASU ASU: Touchdown
8 Q2 14:55 Morgan State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% ASU MORG: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Morgan State 0% · Arizona State 100%

Final margin
Arizona State by 63
Luck in points
12.0 for Arizona State
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona State by 51.0
Replay with same day's form
Morgan State 0% · Arizona State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Morgan State · Arizona State

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