luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Alabama at Kentucky, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Alabama beat Kentucky 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Alabama was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:35 left): Return touchdown by Alabama, worth 16 points of win probability to Alabama.

Final

Alabama Crimson Tide 45
Kentucky Wildcats 17

September 12, 2026 · Kroger Field · Closing line: Alabama −9.5

Luck index +1 Alabama about even · −1 Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama wins 10, Kentucky wins 0.

  1. 1 ALA 48 UK 0
  2. 2 ALA 41 UK 0
  3. 3 ALA 38 UK 3
  4. 4 ALA 45 UK 13
  5. 5 ALA 38 UK 10
  6. 6 ALA 26 UK 0
  7. 7 ALA 31 UK 9
  8. 8 ALA 19 UK 0
  9. 9 ALA 28 UK 13
  10. 10 ALA 7 UK 0

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama wins 99% of them, Kentucky 1%. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama by 17+89.0%
Alabama by 9–167.1%
Alabama by 1–83.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Kentucky by 1–80.5%
Kentucky by 9–160.1%
Kentucky by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.3 points to Alabama: the final margin was Alabama by 28, without the luck Alabama by 15.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Talty, 25 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Talty, 41 yds made · 70% expected
  • A. Zouagui, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Talty, 34 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alabama 7 for 40 yards, Kentucky 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:57 Intentional Grounding on Alabama, 0 yards 0% UK 0.0 pts
Q1 7:31 Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards +4% ALA +1.6 pts
Q1 5:45 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +3% UK +1.3 pts
Q1 3:43 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +2% UK +0.7 pts
Q2 13:55 Offside on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ALA +0.7 pts
Q2 11:39 Roughing the Passer on Kentucky, 6 yards +1% ALA +0.6 pts
Q2 11:38 Ineligible Downfield on Alabama, 5 yards +2% UK +0.9 pts
Q2 6:20 Illegal Touching on Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% UK +2.7 pts
Q2 5:42 False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UK +0.4 pts
Q2 2:08 Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ALA +1.5 pts
Q2 0:34 Delay of Game on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UK +0.1 pts
Q3 14:06 Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards +2% ALA +0.6 pts
Q4 9:58 Pass Interference on Kentucky, 15 yards 0% ALA +1.3 pts
Q4 8:12 False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.6 pts
Q4 4:38 Personal Foul on Kentucky, 4 yards 0% ALA +1.2 pts

When it happened

Kentucky’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 52%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kentucky was ahead in it, below while Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:11 Return touchdown by KentuckySpecial teams +8% UK UK: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:17 Alabama fumbled and Kentucky recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% UK ALA: Field goal
3 Q1 6:35 Return touchdown by AlabamaSpecial teams +16% ALA ALA: Field goal
4 Q1 0:32 Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% UK UK: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:45 Alabama converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% ALA ALA: Field goal
6 Q2 6:20 Illegal Touching on Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% UK UK: Punt
7 Q2 5:27 Alabama converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +8% ALA ALA: Field goal
8 Q3 5:42 Kentucky fumbled and Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ALA UK: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama 99% · Kentucky 1%

Final margin
Alabama by 28
Luck in points
12.3 for Alabama
Luck-adjusted margin
Alabama by 15.7
Replay with same day's form
Alabama 99% · Kentucky 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Alabama · Kentucky

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