College football · Week 6 2026 · Thursday, October 8
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky prediction and pick
Our Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers pick: Western Kentucky by 2.5, 56% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 2 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.2, so about 55% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 pm ET · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Western Kentucky by 2.5 · 56% to win
Ours: Western Kentucky by 2.5Missouri State win 44%Western Kentucky win 56%494235282114707142128354249← Missouri State win byWestern Kentucky win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Missouri State win
43.8%
Western Kentucky win
56.2%
Middle 50%: Missouri State by 8 to Western Kentucky by 14
50%
Middle 90%: Missouri State by 24 to Western Kentucky by 29
90%
Middle 95%: Missouri State by 29 to Western Kentucky by 34
95%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 3
6.9%
Exactly Missouri State by 3
6.5%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 7
5.3%
Exactly Missouri State by 7
4.7%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 14
3.4%
P50
Half of games like this end between Missouri State by 8 and Western Kentucky by 14.
P90
9 in 10 between Missouri State by 24 and Western Kentucky by 29.
P95
19 in 20 between Missouri State by 29 and Western Kentucky by 34.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky: questions and answers
Who will win Missouri State vs Western Kentucky?
Our forecast picks Western Kentucky, with 56% to win; Missouri State win 44% of the time.
What’s the spread for Missouri State vs Western Kentucky?
Our spread: Western Kentucky −2.5. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Missouri State vs Western Kentucky?
Thursday, October 8, 2026, at 7:00 pm ET, at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
Missouri State at 
Western Kentucky
