College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
Oklahoma State vs Arizona State prediction and pick
Our Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona State Sun Devils pick: Arizona State by 7.8, 68% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 21, time to be announced · Mountain America Stadium
Arizona State by 7.8 · 68% to win
Ours: Arizona State by 7.8Oklahoma State win 32%Arizona State win 68%5649423528211470714212835424956← Oklahoma State win byArizona State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Oklahoma State win
32.2%
Arizona State win
67.8%
Middle 50%: Oklahoma State by 3 to Arizona State by 20
50%
Middle 90%: Oklahoma State by 21 to Arizona State by 35
90%
Middle 95%: Oklahoma State by 26 to Arizona State by 42
95%
Exactly Arizona State by 3
6.3%
Exactly Oklahoma State by 3
5.4%
Exactly Arizona State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Arizona State by 14
3.9%
Exactly Oklahoma State by 7
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Oklahoma State by 3 and Arizona State by 20.
P90
9 in 10 between Oklahoma State by 21 and Arizona State by 35.
P95
19 in 20 between Oklahoma State by 26 and Arizona State by 42.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Oklahoma State vs Arizona State: questions and answers
Who will win Oklahoma State vs Arizona State?
Our forecast picks Arizona State, with 68% to win; Oklahoma State win 32% of the time.
What’s the spread for Oklahoma State vs Arizona State?
Our spread: Arizona State −7.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Oklahoma State vs Arizona State?
Saturday, November 21, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Mountain America Stadium.
Oklahoma State at 
Arizona State
