2025 college football season · final

College football standings 2025, adjusted for luck

The 2025 standings, and the same games with every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and referee call re-rolled. Without that luck, 7 conference title games would have a different matchup.

Conference record: regular-season games between two teams of the same conference. Adjusted: each of those games counted at how often the team wins it replayed with only the luck re-rolled (the coin-flip replay). Ranks compare win shares, so teams with fewer games aren’t behind; ties go to the overall record, then point differential. Luck rankings

Group by

Big Ten ACC Big 12 SEC American Sun Belt MAC Conference USA Mountain West Pac-12

Big Ten

Ohio State and Indiana played for the title, and still would after adjusting for luck.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲1	2	Ohio State	9–0	8.8–0.2	12–1	0.0	✓
2▼1	1	Indiana	9–0	8.3–0.7	13–0	+1.4	✓
3	3	Oregon	8–1	7.6–1.4	11–1	+0.4
4▲2	6	Iowa	6–3	7.0–2.0	8–4	−1.7
5▼1	4	USC	7–2	6.4–2.6	9–3	+0.6
6▲1	7	Washington	5–4	5.7–3.3	8–4	−0.7
7▼2	5	Michigan	7–2	5.5–3.5	9–3	+1.2
8	8	Illinois	5–4	5.0–4.0	8–4	0.0
9	9	Minnesota	5–4	4.9–4.1	7–5	+0.5
10	10	Nebraska	4–5	4.6–4.4	7–5	+0.1
11▲1	12	Penn State	3–6	4.3–4.7	6–6	−1.3
12▼1	11	Northwestern	4–5	2.8–6.2	6–6	+1.2
13▲4	17	Michigan State	1–8	2.3–6.7	4–8	−0.6
14▼1	13	UCLA	3–6	2.1–6.9	3–9	+0.8
15▼1	14	Rutgers	2–7	1.9–7.1	5–7	+0.3
16	16	Maryland	1–8	1.9–7.1	4–8	−0.9
17▼2	15	Wisconsin	2–7	1.4–7.6	4–8	+0.6
18	18	Purdue	0–9	0.6–8.4	2–10	−0.6

ACC

Adjusted for luck, SMU and Miami would have played in the title game instead of Virginia and Duke.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲3	4	SMU	6–2	7.0–1.0	8–4	−1.5	✓
2	2	Miami	6–2	6.3–1.7	10–2	+0.2	✓
3▲2	5	Pittsburgh	6–2	5.6–2.4	8–4	+0.1
4▼3	1	Virginia	7–2	6.2–2.8	10–3	+0.4	out
5▲1	6	Duke	6–2	5.3–2.7	8–5	+0.9	out
6▲1	7	NC State	5–4	5.5–3.5	7–5	−0.3
7▲3	10	Clemson	4–4	4.8–3.2	7–5	−0.7
8▼5	3	Georgia Tech	6–2	4.7–3.3	9–3	+1.7
9▼1	8	Louisville	4–4	4.2–3.8	8–4	−0.1
10▲3	13	Florida State	2–6	4.1–3.9	5–7	−2.3
11▲3	14	North Carolina	2–6	3.4–4.6	4–8	−1.4
12▼3	9	Wake Forest	4–4	3.1–4.9	8–4	+1.2
13▼2	11	California	4–4	3.0–5.0	7–5	+1.1
14▼2	12	Stanford	3–5	2.4–5.6	4–8	+0.8
15	15	Virginia Tech	2–6	1.5–6.5	3–9	+0.5
16▲1	17	Boston College	1–7	1.1–6.9	2–10	−0.8
17▼1	16	Syracuse	1–7	0.8–7.2	3–9	+0.2

Big 12

Adjusted for luck, Utah would have played in the title game instead of BYU.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Texas Tech	8–1	8.7–0.3	12–1	−0.7	✓
2▲1	3	Utah	7–2	6.9–2.1	10–2	+0.1	✓
3▼1	2	BYU	8–1	6.5–2.5	11–2	+1.5	out
4	4	Arizona	7–3	6.8–3.2	9–3	+0.3
5▲2	7	Iowa State	5–4	5.5–3.5	8–4	+0.3
6▲4	10	Kansas State	5–5	5.7–4.3	6–6	−1.0
7▼2	5	Houston	6–3	5.1–3.9	9–3	+1.1
8▲1	9	Cincinnati	5–4	4.6–4.4	7–5	−0.2
9▼3	6	Arizona State	6–3	4.2–4.8	8–4	+1.6
10▼2	8	TCU	5–4	4.1–4.9	8–4	+1.2
11	11	Kansas	3–6	3.7–5.3	5–7	−0.8
12	12	Baylor	3–6	3.5–5.5	5–7	−0.4
13	13	UCF	2–7	2.4–6.6	5–7	0.0
14▲1	15	Colorado	1–8	2.3–6.7	3–9	−1.8
15▼1	14	West Virginia	2–7	2.3–6.7	4–8	−0.1
16	16	Oklahoma State	0–9	0.7–8.3	1–11	−1.0

SEC

Adjusted for luck, Texas A&M would have played in the title game instead of Alabama.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲2	3	Texas A&M	7–1	6.2–1.8	11–1	+1.3	✓
2▼1	1	Georgia	7–1	6.1–1.9	12–1	+1.1	✓
3▼1	2	Ole Miss	7–1	6.0–2.0	11–1	+1.3
4	4	Alabama	7–1	5.8–2.2	10–3	+1.1	out
5	5	Vanderbilt	6–2	5.7–2.3	10–2	+0.3
6▲3	9	Tennessee	4–4	5.0–3.0	8–4	−1.0
7	7	Texas	6–2	4.6–3.4	9–3	+1.0
8▼2	6	Oklahoma	6–2	4.6–3.4	10–2	+1.7
9▼1	8	Missouri	4–4	3.7–4.3	8–4	+0.3
10▲3	13	Auburn	1–7	3.5–4.5	5–7	−2.4
11▲5	16	Arkansas	0–8	2.7–5.3	2–10	−3.5
12▼2	10	LSU	3–5	2.7–5.3	7–5	+0.6
13▼2	11	Kentucky	2–6	2.3–5.7	5–7	0.0
14▼2	12	Florida	2–6	1.9–6.1	4–8	−0.2
15▼1	14	Mississippi State	1–7	1.7–6.3	5–7	−0.5
16▼1	15	South Carolina	1–7	1.7–6.3	4–8	−0.8

American

Adjusted for luck, South Florida would have played in the title game instead of Tulane.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	North Texas	7–1	6.9–1.1	11–2	+0.1	✓
2▲2	4	South Florida	6–2	6.8–1.2	9–3	−0.3	✓
3▼1	2	Tulane	7–1	6.4–1.6	11–2	+1.8	out
4▲1	5	East Carolina	6–2	5.8–2.2	8–4	+0.1
5▲1	6	Memphis	4–4	5.3–2.7	8–4	−0.2
6▼3	3	Navy	7–1	5.1–2.9	10–2	+2.7
7	7	UTSA	4–4	5.1–2.9	6–6	−1.5
8	8	Army	4–4	3.7–4.3	6–6	−0.6
9	9	Temple	3–5	3.3–4.7	5–7	−0.3
10	10	Florida Atlantic	3–5	2.8–5.2	4–8	−0.3
11	11	Rice	2–6	2.2–5.8	5–7	+0.2
12	12	UAB	2–6	1.4–6.6	4–8	+1.0
13	13	Tulsa	1–7	1.3–6.7	4–8	−0.8
14	14	Charlotte	0–8	0.0–8.0	1–11	+0.2

Sun Belt

Adjusted for luck, Texas State would have played in the title game instead of Troy.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	James Madison	8–0	7.8–0.2	12–1	+0.2	✓
2▲7	9	Texas State	3–5	5.6–2.4	6–6	−1.9	✓
3▼1	2	Old Dominion	6–2	5.4–2.6	9–3	+0.6
4▼1	3	Troy	6–2	5.3–2.7	8–5	+1.0	out
5▼1	4	Southern Miss	5–3	4.7–3.3	7–5	+0.2
6▲1	7	Coastal Carolina	5–3	4.6–3.4	6–6	+1.1
7▲1	8	Georgia Southern	4–4	3.8–4.2	6–6	+0.3
8▼3	5	Arkansas State	5–3	3.5–4.5	6–6	+0.7
9▲1	10	Marshall	3–5	3.5–4.5	5–7	−1.4
10▲1	11	South Alabama	3–5	3.0–5.0	4–8	−1.0
11▲1	12	App State	2–6	2.9–5.1	5–7	+0.1
12▼6	6	Louisiana	5–3	2.3–5.7	6–6	+1.9
13	13	UL Monroe	1–7	2.0–6.0	3–9	−0.9
14	14	Georgia State	0–8	1.5–6.5	1–11	−1.3

MAC

Adjusted for luck, Toledo would have played in the title game instead of Miami (OH).

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲1	2	Toledo	6–2	6.5–1.5	8–4	−0.8	✓
2▼1	1	Western Michigan	7–1	6.0–2.0	9–4	+1.2	✓
3	3	Ohio	6–2	5.8–2.2	8–4	+0.1
4▲1	5	Central Michigan	5–3	5.6–2.4	7–5	−0.4
5▼1	4	Miami (OH)	6–2	5.4–2.6	7–6	−0.3	out
6▲2	8	Kent State	4–4	4.7–3.3	5–7	−0.6
7	7	Akron	4–4	4.0–4.0	5–7	−0.5
8▲4	12	Northern Illinois	2–6	3.4–4.6	3–9	−0.7
9	9	Eastern Michigan	3–5	3.1–4.9	4–8	−0.1
10▼4	6	Buffalo	4–4	2.7–5.3	5–7	−0.3
11	11	Bowling Green	2–6	2.5–5.5	4–8	−0.5
12▼2	10	Ball State	3–5	1.7–6.3	4–8	+0.9
13	13	Massachusetts	0–8	0.6–7.4	0–12	−0.7

Conference USA

Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State played for the title, and still would after adjusting for luck.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Kennesaw State	7–1	6.3–1.7	10–3	+1.9	✓
2	2	Jacksonville State	7–1	6.2–1.8	8–5	−0.5	✓
3▲1	4	Louisiana Tech	5–3	5.9–2.1	7–5	−0.9
4▲1	5	Florida International	5–3	5.1–2.9	7–5	0.0
5▲2	7	Delaware	4–4	4.5–3.5	6–6	+0.1
6▲2	8	Liberty	3–5	4.0–4.0	4–8	−1.1
7▼1	6	Missouri State	5–3	3.7–4.3	7–5	+2.2
8▼5	3	Western Kentucky	6–2	3.4–4.6	8–4	+2.4
9▲1	10	Middle Tennessee	2–6	3.4–4.6	3–9	−1.4
10▼1	9	New Mexico State	2–6	2.6–5.4	4–8	+0.3
11	11	UTEP	1–7	2.1–5.9	2–10	−1.2
12	12	Sam Houston	1–7	1.0–7.0	2–10	+0.2

Mountain West

Adjusted for luck, San Diego State would have played in the title game instead of UNLV.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1▲1	2	San Diego State	6–2	6.0–2.0	9–3	+0.2	✓
2▲2	4	Boise State	6–2	5.5–2.5	9–4	+0.7	✓
3▼2	1	UNLV	6–2	5.3–2.7	10–3	+1.5	out
4▲1	5	Fresno State	5–3	4.9–3.1	8–4	+0.1
5▲2	7	Utah State	4–4	4.7–3.3	6–6	−0.7
6	6	Hawai'i	5–3	4.5–3.5	8–4	+0.8
7▼4	3	New Mexico	6–2	4.4–3.6	9–3	+1.6
8	8	Air Force	3–5	3.9–4.1	4–8	−1.4
9▲2	11	San José State	2–6	2.6–5.4	3–9	−0.7
10▼1	9	Wyoming	2–6	2.5–5.5	4–8	−0.4
11▼1	10	Nevada	2–6	2.4–5.6	3–9	−0.4
12	12	Colorado State	1–7	1.3–6.7	2–10	−0.5

Pac-12

Washington State and Oregon State lead either way.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Conf.	Adj. conf.	Overall	Luck	Title
1	1	Washington State	1–1	1.1–0.9	6–6	0.0	✓
2	2	Oregon State	1–1	0.9–1.1	2–10	−1.3	✓

Power 4

SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC. Every team by its overall record adjusted for luck.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1▲1	2	Texas Tech Big 12	12–1	12.7	−0.7
2▲1	3	Ohio State Big Ten	12–1	12.0	0.0
3▼2	1	Indiana Big Ten	13–0	11.6	+1.4
4▲1	5	Oregon Big Ten	11–1	10.6	+0.4
5▼1	4	Georgia SEC	12–1	10.9	+1.1
6▲3	9	Utah Big 12	10–2	9.9	+0.1
7▲3	10	Miami ACC	10–2	9.8	+0.2
8▲14	22	Iowa Big Ten	8–4	9.7	−1.7
9▼2	7	Texas A&M SEC	11–1	9.7	+1.3
10▲1	11	Vanderbilt SEC	10–2	9.7	+0.3
11▼5	6	Ole Miss SEC	11–1	9.7	+1.3
12▲12	24	SMU ACC	8–4	9.5	−1.5
13▲12	25	Tennessee SEC	8–4	9.0	−1.0
14	14	Virginia ACC	10–3	9.6	+0.4
15▼7	8	BYU Big 12	11–2	9.5	+1.5
16	16	Arizona Big 12	9–3	8.8	+0.3
17▲4	21	Washington Big Ten	8–4	8.7	−0.7
18▼3	15	USC Big Ten	9–3	8.4	+0.6
19▼7	12	Oklahoma SEC	10–2	8.3	+1.7
20▼7	13	Alabama SEC	10–3	8.9	+1.1
21▲6	27	Louisville ACC	8–4	8.1	−0.1
22▲7	29	Illinois Big Ten	8–4	8.0	0.0
23▼6	17	Texas SEC	9–3	8.0	+1.0
24▼4	20	Houston Big 12	9–3	7.9	+1.1
25▲1	26	Pittsburgh ACC	8–4	7.9	+0.1
26▼8	18	Michigan Big Ten	9–3	7.8	+1.2
27▲7	34	Clemson ACC	7–5	7.7	−0.7
28▼5	23	Missouri SEC	8–4	7.7	+0.3
29▼1	28	Iowa State Big 12	8–4	7.7	+0.3
30▲15	45	Auburn SEC	5–7	7.4	−2.4
31▲7	38	NC State ACC	7–5	7.3	−0.3
32▼13	19	Georgia Tech ACC	9–3	7.3	+1.7
33▲11	44	Florida State ACC	5–7	7.3	−2.3
34▲7	41	Penn State Big Ten	6–6	7.3	−1.3
35	35	Cincinnati Big 12	7–5	7.2	−0.2
36▲6	42	Kansas State Big 12	6–6	7.0	−1.0
37▼1	36	Nebraska Big Ten	7–5	6.9	+0.1
38▼7	31	Wake Forest ACC	8–4	6.8	+1.2
39▼9	30	TCU Big 12	8–4	6.8	+1.2
40▼7	33	Duke ACC	8–5	7.1	+0.9
41▼2	39	Minnesota Big Ten	7–5	6.5	+0.5
42▼5	37	LSU SEC	7–5	6.4	+0.6
43▼11	32	Arizona State Big 12	8–4	6.4	+1.6
44▼4	40	California ACC	7–5	5.9	+1.1
45▲1	46	Kansas Big 12	5–7	5.8	−0.8
46▲18	64	Arkansas SEC	2–10	5.5	−3.5
47	47	Mississippi State SEC	5–7	5.5	−0.5
48▲7	55	North Carolina ACC	4–8	5.4	−1.4
49	49	Baylor Big 12	5–7	5.4	−0.4
50▼2	48	UCF Big 12	5–7	5.0	0.0
51	51	Kentucky SEC	5–7	5.0	0.0
52▲2	54	Maryland Big Ten	4–8	4.9	−0.9
53▲8	61	Colorado Big 12	3–9	4.8	−1.8
54▼11	43	Northwestern Big Ten	6–6	4.8	+1.2
55▼3	52	South Carolina SEC	4–8	4.8	−0.8
56▼6	50	Rutgers Big Ten	5–7	4.7	+0.3
57▼1	56	Michigan State Big Ten	4–8	4.6	−0.6
58▼5	53	Florida SEC	4–8	4.2	−0.2
59▼1	58	West Virginia Big 12	4–8	4.1	−0.1
60▼3	57	Wisconsin Big Ten	4–8	3.4	+0.6
61▼2	59	Stanford ACC	4–8	3.2	+0.8
62▲3	65	Boston College ACC	2–10	2.8	−0.8
63▼1	62	Syracuse ACC	3–9	2.8	+0.2
64▲2	66	Purdue Big Ten	2–10	2.6	−0.6
65▼5	60	Virginia Tech ACC	3–9	2.5	+0.5
66▼3	63	UCLA Big Ten	3–9	2.2	+0.8
67	67	Oklahoma State Big 12	1–11	2.0	−1.0

Group of 5

American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Sun Belt. Every team by its overall record adjusted for luck.

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	1	James Madison Sun Belt	12–1	11.8	+0.2
2	2	North Texas American	11–2	10.9	+0.1
3▲4	7	South Florida American	9–3	9.3	−0.3
4▲9	13	Toledo MAC	8–4	8.8	−0.8
5▲4	9	San Diego State Mountain West	9–3	8.8	+0.2
6▼3	3	Tulane American	11–2	9.2	+1.8
7▲1	8	Old Dominion Sun Belt	9–3	8.4	+0.6
8▲7	15	Memphis American	8–4	8.2	−0.2
9▲5	14	East Carolina American	8–4	7.9	+0.1
10▲18	28	Texas State Sun Belt	6–6	7.9	−1.9
11▲7	18	Ohio MAC	8–4	7.9	+0.1
12▼7	5	UNLV Mountain West	10–3	8.5	+1.5
13▲3	16	Fresno State Mountain West	8–4	7.9	+0.1
14▲8	22	Louisiana Tech Conference USA	7–5	7.9	−0.9
15▲5	20	Jacksonville State Conference USA	8–5	8.5	−0.5
16▼5	11	Boise State Mountain West	9–4	8.3	+0.7
17▲12	29	UTSA American	6–6	7.5	−1.5
18▼12	6	Kennesaw State Conference USA	10–3	8.1	+1.9
19▲6	25	Central Michigan MAC	7–5	7.4	−0.4
20▼10	10	New Mexico Mountain West	9–3	7.4	+1.6
21▼17	4	Navy American	10–2	7.3	+2.7
22▼3	19	Hawai'i Mountain West	8–4	7.2	+0.8
23▼11	12	Western Michigan MAC	9–4	7.8	+1.2
24	24	Florida International Conference USA	7–5	7.0	0.0
25▼2	23	Southern Miss Sun Belt	7–5	6.8	+0.2
26▲4	30	Utah State Mountain West	6–6	6.7	−0.7
27	27	Miami (OH) MAC	7–6	7.3	−0.3
28▲4	32	Army American	6–6	6.6	−0.6
29▼8	21	Troy Sun Belt	8–5	7.0	+1.0
30▲9	39	Marshall Sun Belt	5–7	6.4	−1.4
31	31	Washington State Pac-12	6–6	6.0	0.0
32▲1	33	Delaware Conference USA	6–6	5.9	+0.1
33▲3	36	Georgia Southern Sun Belt	6–6	5.7	+0.3
34▲9	43	Kent State MAC	5–7	5.6	−0.6
35▼18	17	Western Kentucky Conference USA	8–4	5.6	+2.4
36▲6	42	Akron MAC	5–7	5.5	−0.5
37▲8	45	Air Force Mountain West	4–8	5.4	−1.4
38	38	Buffalo MAC	5–7	5.3	−0.3
39▼5	34	Arkansas State Sun Belt	6–6	5.3	+0.7
40	40	Temple American	5–7	5.3	−0.3
41▲5	46	Liberty Conference USA	4–8	5.1	−1.1
42▲6	48	South Alabama Sun Belt	4–8	5.0	−1.0
43▼2	41	App State Sun Belt	5–7	4.9	+0.1
44▼7	37	Coastal Carolina Sun Belt	6–6	4.9	+1.1
45▲6	51	Tulsa American	4–8	4.8	−0.8
46▼20	26	Missouri State Conference USA	7–5	4.8	+2.2
47▼3	44	Rice American	5–7	4.8	+0.2
48▼1	47	Bowling Green MAC	4–8	4.5	−0.5
49▲8	57	Middle Tennessee Conference USA	3–9	4.4	−1.4
50▼1	49	Wyoming Mountain West	4–8	4.4	−0.4
51▲2	53	Florida Atlantic American	4–8	4.3	−0.3
52▼17	35	Louisiana Sun Belt	6–6	4.1	+1.9
53▼3	50	Eastern Michigan MAC	4–8	4.1	−0.1
54▲6	60	UL Monroe Sun Belt	3–9	3.9	−0.9
55▲1	56	Northern Illinois MAC	3–9	3.7	−0.7
56▲3	59	San José State Mountain West	3–9	3.7	−0.7
57▼5	52	New Mexico State Conference USA	4–8	3.7	+0.3
58	58	Nevada Mountain West	3–9	3.4	−0.4
59▲3	62	Oregon State Pac-12	2–10	3.3	−1.3
60▲1	61	UTEP Conference USA	2–10	3.2	−1.2
61▼6	55	Ball State MAC	4–8	3.1	+0.9
62▼8	54	UAB American	4–8	3.0	+1.0
63	63	Colorado State Mountain West	2–10	2.5	−0.5
64▲1	65	Georgia State Sun Belt	1–11	2.3	−1.3
65▼1	64	Sam Houston Conference USA	2–10	1.8	+0.2
66	66	Charlotte American	1–11	0.8	+0.2
67	67	Massachusetts MAC	0–12	0.7	−0.7

Independents

Adjusted	Now	Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	1	Notre Dame Independent	10–2	10.8	−0.8
2	2	UConn Independent	9–3	7.7	+1.3

Adjusted: rank adjusted for luck, ▲ places up because luck cost them, ▼ down because luck helped. Now: rank by record. Luck: wins minus coin-flip wins. Title: ✓ in the conference title game by the adjusted standings, ✓ only adjusted for luck, out in by record (or, once played, in the actual title game) only thanks to luck. Top two by the adjusted standings; no tiebreakers beyond the above.

Questions

What are luck-adjusted college football standings?

The 2025 standings with every game’s kicks, fumble bounces, drops, conversions and referee calls re-rolled and everything else as played: each result is replaced by how often the team wins that game replayed that way (its coin-flip win chance), added up. A team that keeps winning close games on missed kicks drops; one losing them climbs.

Which 2025 conference title games would change without luck?

ACC: SMU and Miami in place of Virginia and Duke; Big 12: Utah in place of BYU; SEC: Texas A&M in place of Alabama; American: South Florida in place of Tulane; Sun Belt: Texas State in place of Troy; MAC: Toledo in place of Miami (OH); Mountain West: San Diego State in place of UNLV.

2026 standings · 2025 luck rankings · Predictions · Methodology